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Looks like some dry air got in overnight, a little ragged looking compared to earlier but appears to already be recovering and back to steady strengthening. Some wind shear affecting storm but that’ll subside this evening or early Friday and Dorian should be free to intensify or even rapidly intensify.
FYI: there’s no 8am or 2pm advisory today unless Watches posted for land which will likely be issued for portions of Bahamas and Florida later today. Protocol on advisories is issue at 5 & 11am/pmEDT, and if Watches/Warnings posted for land then add updates at 2 & 8am/pmEDT.
This is what's stressful about tracking these storms, is trying to figure out where the storm may go and how strong. Unfortunately all you can do is wait and see.
Thurs 11aEDT: winds 85mph, moving NW 13mph, pressure 986mb. Strengthening forecasted through the weekend, NHC has Cat4 by Sunday. Just waiting for Friday’s turn back WNW when High pressure expected to build in North of the storm and a High’s clockwise flow would push Dorian more WNW (hurricanes are steered by other weather systems around them). Tropical Storm force winds possible by late Saturday night or Sunday evening coastal FL depending how fast the storm moves. Still uncertainty in track from early Sunday onward. Unless any coastal watches are issued, the next update from hurricane center won’t be until 5pm.
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