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Old 08-29-2019, 11:04 AM
 
Location: Central Florida
2,586 posts, read 3,151,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
It's emotionally exhausting. Whenever a hurricane is expected to make landfall, everything suddenly turns into chaos. An aura of anxiety prevails, there's this guessing games about where the storm will go or if it will even go where it's predicted, which in many cases, they don't. Often you don't know what happens until the day before and by then it's too late. No body knows what will happen and when.
We're like a herd of skittish gazelles who know there's a lion out there somewhere.

The good news about hurricanes is we usually get plenty of warning and have time to prepare. The bad news about hurricanes is we have several days in which to watch the damn thing slowly approaching us, and we know we have absolutely no control over it.
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Old 08-29-2019, 11:13 AM
 
4,823 posts, read 2,375,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrsD2015 View Post
Hi everybody! So, I know nothing about hurricanes, except the categories, but I'd like to know if we will be feeling very strong winds in the Miami-Homestead area? Will it affect us very bad? I am very nervous about this storm. Thanks.
No one can tell you the answer fully with 100% confidence just yet, it’s just too far out in time, but we can work with what we do know/have at the moment. Each day will bring more clarity. For now, as of 11am Thurs: The Hurricane Center, that gives storm stats and is based in Miami, has the ‘cone map’ showing the center could be anywhere from FL keys to offshore of GA by Monday. A lot of computer models bring the storm to the north or south of central FL / the Space Coast but that jumps around still, but not too many bring it into Miami directly (as of now at least, but several West Palm Beach or north). For Miami, the hurricane center currently has a 60-70% chance of Tropical Storm winds between 39 and 57mph, 30-40% chance of Tropical Storm winds 58 to 73mph, and about 20% chance of hurricane force winds (these will shift as storm track shifts). View those here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents The Hurricane Center updates its cone map at 5 & 11am/pm and will add updates at 2 & 8am/pm once Tropical Storm Watches are posted for land which should go out for Bahamas shortly. Remember that although a hurricane is rated by wind speed, that those winds are only found at the center/eye. You get so many miles away from that point then winds aren’t even hurricane speed. Right now Dorian’s hurricane winds only cover a 30mile diameter area. This will likely grow in time some this weekend.

If you or anyone wants to see a quick version their area of what models say are average wind speeds then here’s a cool little resource (just remember these will constantly change and are not forecast, just shows what specific models say at that moment), change the model by clicking the text under “Miami” near top of page, ECMWF is the Euro model, Global US Standard is the GFS.
Miami: (look for Wind Speed column chart on that page and mousing over or clicking or tapping lines in chart will bring up additional details):
https://weather.us/forecast/4164138-...ssentials/euro
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Old 08-29-2019, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,963 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrsD2015 View Post
Hi everybody! So, I know nothing about hurricanes, except the categories, but I'd like to know if we will be feeling very strong winds in the Miami-Homestead area? Will it affect us very bad? I am very nervous about this storm. Thanks.
You'll be on the better side of a storm. Winds will not be an issue there. BUT, keep an eye on forecasts because a shift south of the track by like 200 miles then you'll get very strong gusts. Just hope it doesn't shift south and you'll be fine there.

Edit: wanted to add that if you have a beach home surge might be an issue. I havent looked, or seen any forecasts for it.

Last edited by Cambium; 08-29-2019 at 11:55 AM..
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Florida
21,068 posts, read 21,668,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Just hope it doesn't shift south and you'll be fine there.
.
This is also one of the worse things about it all...hoping it will move away from you which also means wishing it on someone else
Hard for me not to think...no, not think...just feel... damn! I did Irma, you take your turn.
Best case scenario is that something develops that will divert it back into the Atlantic and miss us all!

The only one I have a hard time hoping that escapes it, is the idiot that keeps hoping for one but that's better now since I put him on ignore.
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Central Florida
2,586 posts, read 3,151,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by old_cold View Post
This is also one of the worse things about it all...hoping it will move away from you which also means wishing it on someone else
Hard for me not to think...no, not think...just feel... damn! I did Irma, you take your turn.
Best case scenario is that something develops that will divert it back into the Atlantic and miss us all!

The only one I have a hard time hoping that escapes it, is the idiot that keeps hoping for one but that's better now since I put him on ignore.
That Ignore list comes in handy, doesn't it?

I think hurricanes should be like vaccinations: you experience one and that's it, you don't have to do any more after that. I went through Andrew (I lived in Miami back in the day), so I think I've had enough hurricanes for one lifetime.
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:38 PM
 
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Afternoon Euro out...takes it further South then up along the coast:
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/s...43823702671360
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,963 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
New Euro12z model just updated and its a big change! It makes a turn north at the coast and just rides the beaches all the way to Georgia. Keep an eye on this scenario now.

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...43340564996099
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,963 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Afternoon Euro out...takes it further South then up along the coast:

Ha, you beat me by seconds.

Here it is. Saturday morning to next Friday morning. Each frame is 1 day but note the track of it with the latest Euro12z model. It confirms that we DO NOT know where its going yet and why we should stay on top of it.
Source:

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Old 08-29-2019, 12:53 PM
 
94 posts, read 40,768 times
Reputation: 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by old_cold View Post
This is also one of the worse things about it all...hoping it will move away from you which also means wishing it on someone else
Hard for me not to think...no, not think...just feel... damn! I did Irma, you take your turn.
Best case scenario is that something develops that will divert it back into the Atlantic and miss us all!

The only one I have a hard time hoping that escapes it, is the idiot that keeps hoping for one but that's better now since I put him on ignore.



LK? Thank GOD you put him on ignore. He was getting on my nerves and I had just started reading through this thread!
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Old 08-29-2019, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,963 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
Updated 12z Hurricane Models half of them make the curve north. Just not as soon as the Euro did. Interesting.


https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/


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