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Old 08-30-2019, 06:16 AM
 
4,932 posts, read 2,380,141 times
Reputation: 1688

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Fri 8aEDT 30Aug2019 - With Hurricane Watches for portions of Bahamas we're back to official updates every 3hrs from the NHC at 2, 5 ,8 & 11a/p here just below main map image https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Once Watches go out for FL coast then storm surge maps specific to Dorian will be issued about 60 to 90min after the 5 & 11 updates. In the mean time you can see if you are vulnerable to surge or not here (****Be sure to change storm category from 1 to 5, especially with a foretasted Cat4 just off the coast soon...on desktop thats the Category tabs top of page, on mobile thats the SECOND info bar, click/tap the little horizontal lines image top left corner to reveal category options.) :https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Ma...935fad&entry=1

Air recon just found 110mph sustained surface winds so Cat2/3 borderline.
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:29 AM
 
20,971 posts, read 18,939,295 times
Reputation: 11759
I admit to watching The Weather Channel. It's like an ulcer you're tongue can't resist touching just to see if its still there and is still sore.
Two takeaways. One from this morning, one from last night. This morning they spoke in great detail about how the storm was building and what it might do but then admitted they had no idea what it was going to do given the factors of the conditions its being influenced. Just say " We have no idea what its going to do or how bad it will be."
Then last night was particularly annoying. The two dweebs discussing the storm said they couldn't remember when a storm was moving this slow and could dump this much rain. Guys, Houston was, what two years ago? Last year, even? North Carolina was maybe two years ago. New Orleans earlier this year had a deluge. I don't follow these storms as an obsession like some do with The Weather Channel. But they're a broken record with the attention spans of gnats.
But the worst was their comments about the rain and floods. They suggested EVERYBODY be forced to buy flood insurance so as to increase the pool of money to pay for the damages. I have ZERO chance of being flooded out and I wouldn't pay a dime for flood insurance to help bail out multi millionaires who own coastal property or a second home along a bay or river. There should be a once and done clause for flooding. You get flooded out once, you get paid. You get flooded out twice, you either rebuild on your own or you have the property converted to green space on a flood plain. Or you continue to pay whatever rates the insurance companies see fit to charge you.
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,036 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129
Guys, when you have a powerful system making a hard turn, its nuts. The force that happens with that creates a worser case senario for areas within. Lets hope this thing weakens or doesnt have too much rainfall with it

Play the loop, crazy.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...76377693331456
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:35 AM
 
Location: Florida
13,168 posts, read 6,301,138 times
Reputation: 26864
As bad as living through an actual hurricane: Irma, Charley, Wilma in Florida and Bertha, Dennis and Fran in NC, the aftermath is almost worse. Having no electricity for days in this heat & humidity just really wore me down. On day three with Charley I got into the emergency water in the bathtub that was nice and cool and went out to the car as often as I could to cool off in the a/c. We had no way to make any food because we didn't have a barbecue grill. I do have cans of tuna, spam, Chef Boyardee and corned beef hash in the pantry which I stock up every year on June 1st. I plan on buying a generator very soon and a small grill, as with this climate change I have a feeling SW Florida will be dealing with these hurricanes a lot more often.

The one thing I don't understand is the rush to buy water. Unless you have a well and no generator what do people think is going to happen that we won't have water? I mean we may not like tap water but it's not going to kill us. Are they afraid the pumping stations will quit working or that the water pipes are going to be destroyed? And all these people running to the stores for this water did they not stock up on June 1st? Costco and Wal-Mart in Lee County ran out of water yesterday. People are really freaking out. I'm not going to panic unless I see Jim Cantore in my town....

Oh and guess when my new impact windows are being installed? Not till September 24th. :-(
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:16 AM
 
Location: MID ATLANTIC
8,140 posts, read 19,989,830 times
Reputation: 9382
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icy Tea View Post
I admit to watching The Weather Channel. It's like an ulcer you're tongue can't resist touching just to see if its still there and is still sore.
Two takeaways. One from this morning, one from last night. This morning they spoke in great detail about how the storm was building and what it might do but then admitted they had no idea what it was going to do given the factors of the conditions its being influenced. Just say " We have no idea what its going to do or how bad it will be."
Then last night was particularly annoying. The two dweebs discussing the storm said they couldn't remember when a storm was moving this slow and could dump this much rain. Guys, Houston was, what two years ago? Last year, even? North Carolina was maybe two years ago. New Orleans earlier this year had a deluge. I don't follow these storms as an obsession like some do with The Weather Channel. But they're a broken record with the attention spans of gnats.
But the worst was their comments about the rain and floods. They suggested EVERYBODY be forced to buy flood insurance so as to increase the pool of money to pay for the damages. I have ZERO chance of being flooded out and I wouldn't pay a dime for flood insurance to help bail out multi millionaires who own coastal property or a second home along a bay or river. There should be a once and done clause for flooding. You get flooded out once, you get paid. You get flooded out twice, you either rebuild on your own or you have the property converted to green space on a flood plain. Or you continue to pay whatever rates the insurance companies see fit to charge you.
Listening to these yo-yos fill up airtime with chit-chat just because they are paid to have the appearance of being relevant is a very painful viewing experience. Please DM me and I can talk you through changing the channel
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Treasure/Space coast.
387 posts, read 391,645 times
Reputation: 373
I found the weather channel yesterday just to see what they are doing these days, only to discover they have been taken over by insurance companies.

All we know is what actually happens over our heads, remember the sudden coast grazer and abrupt turn inland in the past few years.
Ma nature will do exactly what it want's and when it want's.
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:26 AM
 
33,039 posts, read 21,934,652 times
Reputation: 17652
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:19 AM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
19,218 posts, read 28,767,521 times
Reputation: 15053
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icy Tea View Post
But the worst was their comments about the rain and floods. They suggested EVERYBODY be forced to buy flood insurance so as to increase the pool of money to pay for the damages. .
Yeah, they already tried that it was called "using tax money to help people re-build" - didn't work and the NFIP is never gonna work either.

I can't believe they said this. I used to obsessively watch TWC and a couple years ago we went from cable to a streaming service and dropped it. Have not missed it for one second.
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:21 AM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
19,218 posts, read 28,767,521 times
Reputation: 15053
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Guys, when you have a powerful system making a hard turn, its nuts. The force that happens with that creates a worser case senario for areas within. Lets hope this thing weakens or doesnt have too much rainfall with it

Play the loop, crazy.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...76377693331456
More and more we are seeing "that could never happen scenarios" - people said Sandy could never happen and that's why people on LI didn't evacuate. Right up until 12 hours before it hit people right here on the LI CD forum were saying "nah, it's gonna turn".
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Old 08-30-2019, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,036 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129
Quick discussion... Sometimes you have to wonder about timing. If that sub tropical ridge never built, Florida would not be getting hit. or if that ridge doesn't weaken, it might of went into the Gulf with its fast moving speed.


Quote:
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.



By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula
. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.
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