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Old 08-30-2019, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
Reputation: 13154

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2pm update: Now a Cat 3


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue
into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move
over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas
today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that with maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
, and
Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure recently estimated from an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 970 mb (28.64 inches).
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
Reputation: 13154
Timing for "gusts" for Orlando, West Palm, Miami, and Jacksonville....not sustained winds, but some inland areas may see hurricane force wind gusts. I'm sure new structures can withstand less than 100mph wind gusts

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/statu...99399242637312
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
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Not just air data... they are getting water data. Very cool! They are working hard with this one after its been a very quiet year.


https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1167470388605018112
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
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Mathew Memories?


https://twitter.com/AndrewSiffert/st...08286758891521
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
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Click to see what the Euro12z does. Crazy! Lets hope every other model starts trending towards this!!


https://twitter.com/seckhardt/status...11619171233792
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Florida
5,116 posts, read 4,520,994 times
Reputation: 11488
Wow, that's the most interesting hurricane roller-coaster I've seen!
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:32 PM
 
1,662 posts, read 940,962 times
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As this guy points out there is really no room for error in that Euro model. If the track moves just 50 miles west it's gonna be bad.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/...110923776?s=20
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Northridge/Porter Ranch, Calif.
22,977 posts, read 28,937,341 times
Reputation: 6849
Quote:
Originally Posted by fluffydelusions View Post
As this guy points out there is really no room for error in that Euro model. If the track moves just 50 miles west it's gonna be bad.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/...110923776?s=20
I sure hope it takes a more northerly course.
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Old 08-30-2019, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,113 posts, read 57,482,654 times
Reputation: 13154
Before the sun goes down, Dorian awakes with an open eye. 2:15-4:15pm loop August 30, 2019


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Old 08-30-2019, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
4,633 posts, read 3,471,335 times
Reputation: 1058
Latest 7 day rainfall forecast from NOAA. Hopefully the heaviest rainfall stays offshore.

Looking like I'll stay mostly dry and hot.

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