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Old 08-31-2019, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,002 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129

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11am Update: Still a Cat 4 but only 6mph from a Cat 5!
Moving only 8mph.
Hurricane force winds have extended out to 30 miles now.

Quote:
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance
planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches).
Swing and a miss but the cone is still over some of Florida but west coast now as it continues to shift east.


Eyes on NC now. Floridians should be grateful!

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Old 08-31-2019, 09:02 AM
 
1,951 posts, read 955,903 times
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So the Euro models were correct 2 days ago.
And Euro models have been more accurate in general this year.
Why the NHC still insists on factoring in the GFS remains a mystery.
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:28 AM
 
17,208 posts, read 11,359,735 times
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Write this off guys it is done. Let it go out to sea and lets get back to life. Sick of seeing IT on TV.
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Southwestern, USA
18,949 posts, read 14,251,691 times
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What? It's not hitting FL now?
What a switch!!!!
Going north the Carolinas...I'm stunned after the reporting from advanced sources!
Boy , will they learn a lot from this one!
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:46 AM
 
17,208 posts, read 11,359,735 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miss Hepburn View Post
What? It's not hitting FL now?
What a switch!!!!
Going north the Carolinas...I'm stunned after the reporting from advanced sources!
Boy , will they learn a lot from this one!
Miss them also.
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
2,165 posts, read 774,475 times
Reputation: 5403
The models didn't see it slow down so much..the slower it got the more likely it was going to steer North before hitting land.
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Old 08-31-2019, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Northern Wisconsin
10,117 posts, read 8,781,526 times
Reputation: 17956
The Weather Channel and the global warming people are going to be very unhappy if this storm doesnt make landfall and cause a lot of damage or flooding.
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Old 08-31-2019, 11:32 AM
 
3,205 posts, read 2,156,420 times
Reputation: 12042
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
11am Update: Still a Cat 4 but only 6mph from a Cat 5!
Moving only 8mph.
Hurricane force winds have extended out to 30 miles now.



Swing and a miss but the cone is still over some of Florida but west coast now as it continues to shift east.


Eyes on NC now. Floridians should be grateful!
Grateful? What an odd word choice.

grate·ful
/ˈɡrātfəl/
adjective
feeling or showing an appreciation of kindness; thankful.


Who was kind? NHC, The Weather Channel, God, Dorian.........?

I’ll be relieved and will relax when Dorian makes the turn.
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Old 08-31-2019, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,002 posts, read 57,425,808 times
Reputation: 13129
New lightning around the eye. Cat 5 coming?


Follow Jesse, he works at Accuweather


https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/st...52517612556288


Quote:
Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit View Post
The models didn't see it slow down so much..the slower it got the more likely it was going to steer North before hitting land.
That's possible. Also possible the ridge weakened enough to steer it north more.
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:00 PM
 
18,094 posts, read 15,412,963 times
Reputation: 25191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbiz1 View Post
So the Euro models were correct 2 days ago.
And Euro models have been more accurate in general this year.
Why the NHC still insists on factoring in the GFS remains a mystery.
The Weather Channel guy the other day made a comment about the Euro models being correct 52% of the time. It was the only model if I recall showing the turn before Florida. The Weather Channel seemed to completely ignore any mention of this from then on. On another thread (I got to find it), someone posted two days ago a tweet showing the Euro model and said it was the most accurate model, and it showed it turning before hitting Florida.
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