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Old 08-31-2019, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,053 posts, read 57,435,611 times
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Wont get too technical but this is a look at the steering currents in the atmosphere. A cyclone moves in the area of least resistance. You can see how the flow is curving east of Florida around that High.


That "H" High pressure in the Atlantic must of shifted east or weakened enough for Dorian to just make that turn.


But to be honest I am surprised it didn't just move west into the gulf.


Also note this map is for pressures under 950mb. You can see other steering flows for other strengths


Source:
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:08 PM
 
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https://twitter.com/OV26264000/statu...56568987201544

Last edited by fluffydelusions; 08-31-2019 at 12:54 PM..
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New GFS model pushes it slightly West and this is a great comparison how just a slight shift means a different forecast. Still nothing to get crazy about regarding winds. "only" Tropical storm force near the coast with this latest GFS12z update.


https://twitter.com/ChrisGNBCBoston/...34970934710276
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:34 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New Euro updating now. This thread is about to get quieter until we realize Eastern NC is in the spotlight next

Enjoy your Tropical breeze weekend Florida. Surfs up!

Anyone have a rain total forecast or water surge?

https://twitter.com/TARCweather/stat...66537035747331


FYI... Euro model updates twice a day every 12hrs. It actually updates 4 times but theres no free access for the 6z and 18z updates.
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:31 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie View Post
The Weather Channel and the global warming people are going to be very unhappy if this storm doesnt make landfall and cause a lot of damage or flooding.
That comment has nothing to do with the hurricane. The TWC has been a joke for over 20 years, and hurricane tracks are notoriously hard to predict by computer models.
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
That comment has nothing to do with the hurricane. The TWC has been a joke for over 20 years, and hurricane tracks are notoriously hard to predict by computer models.
It was much better back in 1986 thru 88 when they had music during the forcast.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Possible? Sure. Still 7 days away so yeah.
"Currently" we dont see it happening.

https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status...47302796587011
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Matthew in 2016...sharp turn right at FL coast.
Irma in 2017...sharp turn south of FL with significant changes in impacts depending on where.
And now Dorian in 2019 with a sharp turn missing Florida

Count your blessings because everyone knows its not if..its when. Matter of time they get hit. Poulation and structures will continue to grow too.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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The eye opened up again.


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Old 08-31-2019, 02:40 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
The Weather Channel guy the other day made a comment about the Euro models being correct 52% of the time. It was the only model if I recall showing the turn before Florida. The Weather Channel seemed to completely ignore any mention of this from then on. On another thread (I got to find it), someone posted two days ago a tweet showing the Euro model and said it was the most accurate model, and it showed it turning before hitting Florida.

Sadly their models haven't improved in 20 years, wouldn't surprise me if it makes an eventual U-turn; missing the U.S. entirely.
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