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Old 08-31-2019, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,982 posts, read 57,406,415 times
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From inside the eye this morning. Wonder how tall the wall is

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...62389678219268
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Old 08-31-2019, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
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The Euro 12z looks like it basically has Dorian missing the U.S. entirely. It's gonna basically pass east of New England late next week and then head into the North Atlantic. If that holds true, the first real landfall might be as an extratropical cyclone when it hits Ireland and Britain in like 10-14 days. Now that's of course crystal ball territory still..
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Old 08-31-2019, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbiz1 View Post
Sadly their models haven't improved in 20 years, wouldn't surprise me if it makes an eventual U-turn; missing the U.S. entirely.
They do a terrible job at forecasting hurricane landfall. It's aggravating the news gets everyone into a frenzy then have it all be for nothing in the end. Seriously f... them for that. Seems like it was better 15-20 yrs ago than now.
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Old 08-31-2019, 03:50 PM
 
17,187 posts, read 11,346,555 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
They do a terrible job at forecasting hurricane landfall. It's aggravating the news gets everyone into a frenzy then have it all be for nothing in the end. Seriously f... them for that. Seems like it was better 15-20 yrs ago than now.
Home Depot pays them off to get more biss. It was much better in the 70's.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I stand corrected!!
Beauty about Tropical Tidbits is you can go back and check previous runs

Heres the GFS 2 days before the Euro figured it out. It was 1st to have the idea. But lost its touch with the updates after this. Not bad though. Unfortunately it let the Euro catch on consistently and then it followed

This was GFS from evening of August 27th



And heres the Euro when it first had the recurve idea. (Or did it have it last week?)
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
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GFS 18z continues to forecast that it will 'scrape' Florida's East Coast and then basically march North-Northeast along the U.S. coast passing the Outer Banks very narrowly before making a further NE turn.



Funnily enough, the German model still sees it make landfall Tuesday early morning somewhere between West Palm Beach and Melbourne before turning northwards while over the state of Florida. I'd probably take a Euro/GFS consensus over that to be fair .
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,982 posts, read 57,406,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit View Post
GFS 18z continues to forecast that it will 'scrape' Florida's East Coast and then basically march North-Northeast along the U.S. coast passing the Outer Banks very narrowly before making a further NE turn.

Funnily enough, the German model still sees it make landfall Tuesday early morning somewhere between West Palm Beach and Melbourne before turning northwards while over the state of Florida. I'd probably take a Euro/GFS consensus over that to be fair .
That ridge needs to not expand westward! There might be some headaches with those following this.

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1167922799471554562
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:22 PM
 
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Yup just saw Levi mention it as well
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...18008280338433
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:31 PM
 
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I am guessing I can leave my balcony furniture out, lol.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:40 PM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
2,148 posts, read 772,442 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
That ridge needs to not expand westward! There might be some headaches with those following this.

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1167922799471554562

It could be a very close call for a bunch of areas. What's concerning to me is just how slow this storm is moving, and when I point out how slow it is I don't mean that this is in itself a major issue in terms of determining where it moves, it's just that this allows for a lot more atmospheric changes to occur before this one is done with i.e. a lot more twists and turns.
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