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Old 08-31-2019, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,066 posts, read 57,435,611 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit View Post
It could be a very close call for a bunch of areas. What's concerning to me is just how slow this storm is moving, and when I point out how slow it is I don't mean that this is in itself a major issue in terms of determining where it moves, it's just that this allows for a lot more atmospheric changes to occur before this one is done with i.e. a lot more twists and turns.
It is crawling. Once was supposed to hit Florida on Sunday (tomorrow) now wont be till Monday until it gets to Orlando Latitude.

Most recent flight into Dorian found 166-171 mph but is "questionable" per notes. Check out the calm in the eye.

Yellow = Cat 1 winds.
Orange = Cat 2.
Red = Cat 3.
Purples Cat 4 & 5 winds.


Copyright © 2019 Cambium
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,066 posts, read 57,435,611 times
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Unm, wow!!! Look at the purple table and Grab the conversion calculator if you need it...
We have a Cat 5!

178mph surface winds.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1167977870578176000

Last edited by Cambium; 08-31-2019 at 08:11 PM..
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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A perfectly round and clear eye now. Crazy!

This is a water vapor loop showing moisture in the atmosphere. Obviously blues = moist. Red = dry.

Beast Mode. Waiting for 11pm update


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Old 08-31-2019, 08:40 PM
 
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Other data supports cat5 at 11p advisory shortly likely. 178 though...I think tonight they found an elusive mesovortices or tornado-vortex along eyewall edge! But just a guess.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:43 PM
 
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Nice eye image. And its dead calm inside. All those intense winds are on edge of that eye in the eye wall. Can’t imagine being over the Bahamas soon and people looking up into the bright sunshine, clear skies and calm winds surrounded by a monster they have to go through all over again when other side of eye reaches.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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They didn't do it.

Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

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Old 08-31-2019, 08:57 PM
 
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Nope, but that’s why they analyze the data, guess potentially suspect so no Cat5 upgrade.
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:00 PM
 
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Why are people saying it's going west again.. hmm
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:06 PM
 
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Ah, NHC discussion page confirms readings were suspect: “There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.”
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poseidon3290 View Post
Why are people saying it's going west again.. hmm
Slight nudge west in model guidance. Here’s NHC’s comments on that tonight from 11p discussion page: “The latest HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even a landfall remain a possibility. “
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