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Old 08-26-2019, 05:56 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
You can bet it will in part of them, but nothing very strong. This will never have a chance to go wild in a days time and blow up into a Cat 3 or more.
Ok, but their trip includes a beach cottage and flying between Islands in a tiny 6 seat plane. I’m surprised my sister is still keen on going. Sounds like not fun, even if not life-threatening.
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:56 PM
 
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First actual recon flight into Dorian is underway, US Airforce just started run through system's core. Follow along in real time here if you want: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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Old 08-26-2019, 06:15 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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It'll probably be just a 1 at most. not a big deal. We've had afternoon thunderstorms worse than ts or category 1s.
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Old 08-26-2019, 06:16 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Jill_Schramm View Post
Ok, but their trip includes a beach cottage and flying between Islands in a tiny 6 seat plane. I’m surprised my sister is still keen on going. Sounds like not fun, even if not life-threatening.
Them islands is a huge area so depends on what islands they are going to. Storm won't hurt a fly, but not good for planes or boats. She better pick another month after Sept. We are getting into the bissy season for tropical action.
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Old 08-26-2019, 06:17 PM
 
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Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
It'll probably be just a 1 at most. not a big deal. We've had afternoon thunderstorms worse than ts or category 1s.
True. Worst winds i saw since 1963 was the no name storm in 93. After all these years only 4 times i have seen wind over 65mph. That is pretty sad.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jill_Schramm View Post
I have to confess I haven’t read the whole thread. But would anyone care to make a guess as to how likely it is that Dorian will be in the Bahamas by the end of the week? My sister is planning on leaving for the Bahamas on Thursday for a short (non cruise) vacation. My BIL wants to cancel now (and try to get some money back from the hotel) and she wants to give it at least one more day. Prognosticators?
I would wonder what cancellation policy is...24hours before check in?, non-refundable?, etc? That may play a role in when to make that decision or not. Just 24hours ago there wasn't a lot of models showing a storm to survive past Puerto Rico / Hispaniola. Now there is a fair amount. Aircraft recon started sampling storm today, that will feed models better data overnight and tomorrow. The Hurricane center seems pretty confident on storm nearing Puerto Rico / Hispaniola later Wednesday as around a Cat1. After that they believe whatever shape/form its in will head in general direction of the Bahamas in the Friday to maybe Sunday time-frame but as was mentioned Bahamas cover a large region, and storms typically have worst weather near their core, and less farther away from center you get. And the forecast 'cone' represents the average error in center position of storm that far out in time. If it go's over Hispaniola that would weaken it significantly, if it can escape between PR & Hispaniola fairly unscathed then that raises possibility of trouble down the road. From the Hurricane centers 5pm discussion this evening: "The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma." .... "...confidence in the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola." You can read their full discussion here (intensity section is in the 3rd paragraph...so basically its saying too soon to know that it will be and a lot of options on what that could be are on the table): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../262055.shtml?

You can always get the latest storm stats and cone map from Hurricane Center every 3hours at or just before 2, 5, 8, & 11a/p EDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Just go to the Dorian section under the first map of that page. All news/apps get their storm stats and cone map from them and then put their own graphics on them.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:11 PM
 
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Latest video discussion from Tropical Tidbits just out on Dorian: https://youtu.be/9VK8g-KR410
Great videos whether you're a weather nerd or not and just want to know more. Draws on the images and all to explain more easily.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:54 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
I would wonder what cancellation policy is...24hours before check in?, non-refundable?, etc? That may play a role in when to make that decision or not. Just 24hours ago there wasn't a lot of models showing a storm to survive past Puerto Rico / Hispaniola. Now there is a fair amount. Aircraft recon started sampling storm today, that will feed models better data overnight and tomorrow. The Hurricane center seems pretty confident on storm nearing Puerto Rico / Hispaniola later Wednesday as around a Cat1. After that they believe whatever shape/form its in will head in general direction of the Bahamas in the Friday to maybe Sunday time-frame but as was mentioned Bahamas cover a large region, and storms typically have worst weather near their core, and less farther away from center you get. And the forecast 'cone' represents the average error in center position of storm that far out in time. If it go's over Hispaniola that would weaken it significantly, if it can escape between PR & Hispaniola fairly unscathed then that raises possibility of trouble down the road. From the Hurricane centers 5pm discussion this evening: "The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma." .... "...confidence in the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola." You can read their full discussion here (intensity section is in the 3rd paragraph...so basically its saying too soon to know that it will be and a lot of options on what that could be are on the table): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../262055.shtml?

You can always get the latest storm stats and cone map from Hurricane Center every 3hours at or just before 2, 5, 8, & 11a/p EDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Just go to the Dorian section under the first map of that page. All news/apps get their storm stats and cone map from them and then put their own graphics on them.
I’m not exactly sure which islands were involved, but I know they were going to begin and end the trip in Nassau and it looks like Nassau is right smack in the middle of the cone. I have no idea what their cancellation policy or policies are like. I suppose I’ll hear about it soon though.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:50 PM
 
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Mon 26Aug2019 11pEDT/AST,10pCDT: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1003mb. Located S of Barbados just offshore, & about 95miles(155km) ESE St. Lucia. Tropical Storm force winds go out up to 45miles(75km) from storm center.

Storm not as healthy looking this evening with dry air entangling but expected to resume slow steady strengthening as continues to head towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola regions. Past that area too soon to know what shape the storm will be left in.
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Old 08-27-2019, 04:27 AM
 
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Guys ya get it thru your heads there is too much dry air aloft for this weak system to do anything for many days. Lets pray the high builds in and it become a strong CAT1 and makes landfall south of the Tampa area as that will give me the most rain as the rap around effect once it moves west into the gulf will give me the best rain chances. The upper levels are just not right for this to be a 3 or 4. There is no good looking out flow on this system and won't be for at least 4 more days. Just maybe we can get lucky and the upper levels will be nicer to the storm 200 miles east of FL.
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