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^The problem for the people of Bahamas, 4 days out no model was predicting that the hurricane would be a Cat 5 with 185 mph sustained winds that sat stationary over the islands for days. The inaccurate model was predicting a Cat 2 with 100 MPH winds (at its most intense) and moving quickly past the islands. None of that happened because the model was way off.
As mentioned in one of the other threads, the NHC’s 5-day cone has been used for just over 15 hurricane seasons and about every year decreases in size (represents the average error in NHC’s forecast track over time). Before that we only had 3-day cone (think of the massive evacuations Floyd caused in 1999 from FL northward not knowing where it would go & went to NC). Some have asked for a 7-day cone but they won’t consider that until 5-day average error in track comes down a lot more. Overall NHC does pretty good in track forecast imo. Yes it would be nice to know a lot sooner what/where & nice if 5days out it didn’t encircle the entire state of FL but thats the limit of our science and technology. If want better then increase in understanding more science, math, technology, etc. is needed. Giant leaps in weather can be achieved...NWS is currently experimenting with 1hr lead times for specific areas for large tornadoes of the Midwest, not ready for public release but getting closer.
It is so unfortunate that the Bahamas got slammed and Florida spared, the forecast's did an OK short term job and a poor long term 5 days out job.
Look folks, it's Mother Nature and it will do whatever it feels like and does not respect millions of dollars of computing power and never will.
I am happy to be in hurricane alley and not tornado alley, having a reasonable 3 day warning is good for me.
there's a pic circulating of the flooded areas of Grand Bahamas, taken from high above.
has anyone else seen it and if so, do you know what organization took it/publicized it?
I believe you may be referring to this? If so this particular image is by ICEYE. It’s not an actual visible image, rather it uses a type of radar to penetrate cloud cover to show where water is at time pic taken (so not really a before/after as tweet says as we don’t know what flooded before or after). NASA or NOAA have a similar imagery technique they use in inland flooding maps for US. I have link buried somewhere in my collection for theirs but can’t find at the moment. But anways...that should be valid flooding map at time pic was taken which I don’t have a time stamp on and doesn’t tell us how deep but if knew topography could extrapolate that.
He's posting on his own twitter account. During the eye they sought more secure shelter and were able to survive. Just no words. I thought he was a goner after seeing where the school where he initially was staying was. I'm sure its still completely under water.
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