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Old 08-28-2019, 03:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,113 posts, read 56,569,381 times
Reputation: 12760

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Euro wrong? King fail?

https://twitter.com/GrantWTSP/status...47327240728577
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:03 AM
 
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It will keep moving north and i won't get anything out this system like i said days ago.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Feeling Tropical in the Tropics. A look at the Current Dew points and the NHC track of Dorian.
Possible Cat 2 "affecting" SouthEast US Sat-Tues. Still potential it might not make landfall.


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Old 08-28-2019, 04:17 AM
 
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Wished it would turn more south and give me some much needed rain. All this system will do is dry me out as sinking air on the west side will cap any lift to make T -storms for my area.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:18 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Models are trending stronger with Dorian. Some models have it getting to Cat 3 or 4 but the mean is still a Cat 2.
https://twitter.com/AndrewSiffert/st...452992/photo/1




Latest from NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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Old 08-28-2019, 04:39 AM
 
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Out flow should start to look better in a few days with less shear.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:30 AM
 
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Wed 28Aug2019 8aEDT/AST: Having a more “classic” look now, eye on radar, slowly strengthening storm. Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1003mb. Located about 60miles(95km) SE St. Croix. Tropical Storm force winds go out up to 60miles(95km) from storm center. Tropical Storm winds now being reported in US Virgin Islands.

https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...85246437363712
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:04 AM
aax
 
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All models ahve failed, epically.
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Inland FL
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This is what's stressful about tracking these storms, is trying to figure out where the storm may go and how strong. Unfortunately all you can do is wait and see.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,113 posts, read 56,569,381 times
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11am Update:: Now to become a Major Hurricane Cat 3. Time to start planning Florida while hoping it turns north or weaken.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

Quote:
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track,
Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern
Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the
Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.



Technical Discussion


Quote:
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.

Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

Last edited by Cambium; 08-28-2019 at 09:49 AM..
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