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Old 08-28-2019, 09:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,043 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Good look at the NHC forecast over past few days. Note the shift in the center keeps going north. Anyone from Ft Lauderdale to Myrtle Beach is still in play for a landfall.


https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1166735704673660928
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:17 AM
 
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Latest GFS just out with Central / N FL landfall (shown below). Morning Euro has central / S FL. HWRF central FL. Rapid intensification will also be possible, NHC’s Cat3 is with slow steady strengthening mind you. Plenty of time for changes and no GA or Carolina’s aren’t off the hook yet.

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166742918859841536
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:25 AM
 
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Keep in mind...and subject to change timing still...Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) could reach FL coast late Saturday or sometime Sunday. That’s the time period you need to already have left or hunkered down by...winds around 40mph is when you start seeing scattered downed trees/power lines begin. That means with high populations along coastal SE US and a holiday weekend that emergency Management will have to make evacuation calls starting sometime Thursday or Friday. If if goes into FL, the counter clockwise onshore flow of winds will likely push tides higher into Jacksonville area as well as very low lying coastal regions of GA and SC this weekend / early next week. Still time for changes though.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...44443417849857
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,043 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Latest GFS just out with Central / N FL landfall (shown below).
Yup, latest GFS12z says landfall in Florida Sunday evening and Tuesday afternoon its still at the FL/GA border. That wouldn't be good.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:54 AM
 
1,951 posts, read 955,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aax View Post
All models have failed, epically.

Yep, this went from no big deal to major hurricane seemingly overnight.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:13 AM
aax
 
712 posts, read 290,058 times
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I don't understand why LKJ1988 kept saying this storm is nothing. When it is something.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,438 posts, read 11,251,407 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Yup, latest GFS12z says landfall in Florida Sunday evening and Tuesday afternoon its still at the FL/GA border. That wouldn't be good.



What is that tropical weather site I've seen posted on here that is free?
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Coastal SC
145 posts, read 89,280 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aax View Post
I don't understand why LKJ1988 kept saying this storm is nothing. When it is something.
Read all his posts, you will understand. Even if he gets exactly what he wants, he will still find something to complain about.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:34 AM
aax
 
712 posts, read 290,058 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wiscokay View Post
Read all his posts, you will understand. Even if he gets exactly what he wants, he will still find something to complain about.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:48 AM
 
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Wed 28Aug 2pEDT/AST - winds 75mph - now a Cat1 Hurricane.
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