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Old 08-28-2019, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
What is that tropical weather site I've seen posted on here that is free?
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/


https://spaghettimodels.com/
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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2pm Update: Now a hurricane

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/281744.shtml?


Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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Euro jogs south with it. Stays Strong till landfall

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...78139948793856
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:44 PM
 
1,770 posts, read 867,377 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Euro jogs south with it. Stays Strong till landfall

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...78139948793856

Models handling this very poorly, huge spread between Euro and GFS.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:21 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbiz1 View Post
Models handling this very poorly, huge spread between Euro and GFS.
A lot closer together today though then last night when they went opp directions at least.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:23 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
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Here’s a handy break down of the afternoon Euro ensembles (the 51 models that make up the Euro, the black line towards center is the main Euro model) that may help some when see all the sketti lines:
https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...06998253559808
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbiz1 View Post
Models handling this very poorly, huge spread between Euro and GFS.
What time frame are you looking at? You can't take anything past 5 days seriously. Just watch the trends
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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Dorian is a Cat 1 Hurricane and NHC says will be a Cat 3 miles off the East coast of Florida on Sunday.


5pm Update Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles

My software doesn't pick up the rain falling yet...


Copyright © 2019 Cambium
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:05 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
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Also adding:
Www.tropicalTidbits.com

And Weather Nerds just updated to include Euro ensemble tracks:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:22 PM
 
31,753 posts, read 21,317,641 times
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folks here in orlando are already making runs on water.
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