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Old 08-24-2019, 07:09 PM
 
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Quick Summary: TINY storm, Hurricane Tue?, Wind shear ahead near PR & Hispaniola may weaken it, questions on if it escapes the Caribbean or not, HIGH uncertainty on intensity forecast, stay tuned.

Sat 24Aug2019 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT: Invest 99L QUICKLY organized itself becoming Tropical Depression 5 (TD5) today and now Tropical Storm Dorian, the 4th named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season. On average the 4th named storm genesis date is Aug 23rd.

Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1008mb. Located about 725miles(1,165km) ESE of Barbados.

This is a very tiny system (physical size speaking). Small core systems can be hard to predict intensity wise as they are subject to rapid changes up or down in wind speed. NHC estimates eye only about 10miles in diameter. For now Dorian is free to strengthen through Tuesday, only fighting off dry air near it (storm will weaken if it wraps that dry air into its core). NHC says by Tuesday Dorian reaches the Eastern Caribbean islands as a Cat1 hurricane with 75-85mph winds but says rapid intensification is possible by this time and could be stronger by then. Watches will likely be posted Sunday (time based issuance) for portions of the Lesser Antilles.

Thereafter as nears or goes North or South of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola wind shear will be increasing across this region which may weaken Dorian considerably, with many models showing Dorian falling apart around this time. Models suggest the more North Dorian goes the better its odds of surviving. Even only 3 of the 51 afternoon Euro model runs show Dorian making it to the Bahamas thereafter. And Hispaniola is nicknamed the Hurricane Shredder often with unrecoverable blows to storms that tread near its mountainous terrain. NHC is keeping the storm as a Hurricane through Thursday though. I think personally we'll have a better idea on its odds of escaping the Caribbean in the Wednesday-Friday time period. Intensity changes along its future path may be up and down as the week progresses.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6 hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST & when Watches/Warnings issued then they add updates at 2 & 8a/pEDT/AST as well here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Tropical Tidbits has issued a discussion on this storm I highly recommend you check out here: https://youtu.be/i0p9aWl9StI


Imagery:
FL - Caribbean region (GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...G16&sector=car
Dedicated Puerto Rico channel (GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...=G16&sector=pr
Floater imagery via TropicalTidbits: https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satl...05L&product=ir


Current Cone Map (shows where center of storm could be in time, letters in black dots = poss strength at that time frame):

https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...30855516532736
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/statu...70246128996352
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:50 PM
 
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Sat 24Aug2019 11pEDT/AST,10pCDT: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1008mb. Located about 635miles(1,020km) ESE of Barbados.

Changes: none, still high uncertainty in intensity next several days, Watches for some of the islands will be posted sometime Sunday.
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Old 08-25-2019, 05:02 AM
 
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Sun 25Aug2019 5aEDT/AST,4aCDT: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1008mb. Located about 555miles(890km) ESE of Barbados. Small system so needs to be watched for sudden changes in intensity up/down. Uncertainty on forecast by weeks end still.

Changes:
-Tropical Storm Watch Barbados (more later today).
-Rain 2-4in, isolated 6in Lesser Antilles.
-Track shifted South, GFS & Euro models are more South then NHC cone implies.
-Intensity forecast lowered. Still may reach Cat1 at E Caribbean islands, then weakening more likely.
-Battling lite wind shear & dry air nearby now.
-Wind shear increases after enters Caribbean.

https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...79924952027136
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Old 08-25-2019, 05:33 AM
 
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Reminder: With Watches now up, updates from the NHC are issued every 3 hours at 2,5,8 & 11a/pEDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 08-25-2019, 07:36 AM
 
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Sad looking small system with no chance to be anything real. Upper levels will not be nice to it a few days from now as it moves WNW. Another miss for me.
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Old 08-25-2019, 07:47 AM
aax
 
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PR is ready:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm7pI5uVsAAaY7s.jpg
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Old 08-25-2019, 12:10 PM
 
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Sun 25Aug2019 2pEDT/AST,1pCDT: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1008mb. Located about 430miles(690km) ESE of Barbados.

Changes:
-Recent burst of lightning detected = sudden change in intensity likely occurring.
-Convection becoming more persistent over core.
-NOAA aircraft nearby monitoring outside of storm radius (smaller one so doesn't fly into storm for readings).
-Two US Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft en route, likely Monday before they fly into storm.
-Tropical Storm Warning Barbados
-Tropical Storm Watch St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenadines
-Current NHC cone map shows hurricane Tue/Wed then weakening, Depression by Friday over/near Hispaniola. Subject to change this far out in time and uncertainty still high at the moment.
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Old 08-25-2019, 03:11 PM
 
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Sun 25Aug2019 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT: Estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1003mb. Located about 375miles(605km) ESE of Barbados, about 485miles(780km) ESE St. Lucia.

Changes:
-Convection didn't remain steady over the center, but continues to pulse trying.
-dry air may be getting into the system some especially W and S sides hindering development now.
-Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadines.
-Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique & Grenada and its dependencies.
-NHC says lower then normal confidence in intensity especially by time nears Hispaniola later this week: "The new forecast calls for Dorian to weaken to a depression due to passage over Hispaniola. However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over the island."
-But most models show the storm falling apart in the E Caribbean rather quickly. Stronger into the islands it makes it the likely better chance it has to survive longer.
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Old 08-25-2019, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Frisco, TX
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It will be interesting to see if Dorian follows the Bermuda High path and traces the coast of the eastern seaboard or if it heads in a more westwardly direction into the Gulf.
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