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Old 08-31-2019, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
1,291 posts, read 359,346 times
Reputation: 1798

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny the Mutt View Post
50 years? You should know storms often change course and changes the game.

If authorities to told people that only specific areas were going to be affected and the storm track changes, a lot of people are going to be caught unprepared for the storm.
Yes, I have lived in FTL (in the same house) for over 50 years, so I actually have more real-time experience with hurricanes than most of the weather celebrities. Also in those 50 years I have learned a lot of meteorological stuff. I was also a surfer and a sailor so I know how to read the skies and the ocean. And yes, Weebles wobble!

And AFAIC - if, at the start of Hurricane Season (June 1) a Florida resident does not already have food, medical, and other supplies for at least one week, know how to put up their shutters, know to fill their bathtubs with water and gas tanks with fuel... then they are ALREADY UNPREPARED!

Everyone around here, mostly newcomers to S FL, were freaking out yesterday while the weather celebrities kept predicting the EOTW! That is NOT a service to the Community nor is it useful to LT residents who actually know WTF they are dealing with!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Oh I see so you want an exact path and intensity forecast 4 days out...else its a fail.
No!

1. it was not four days out, but only two
2. I don't expect exact GPS coordinates, but Jesus can't they narrow it down to a hundred miles or less!?

Given that we are almost in 2020, I would expect the technology to have improved substantially enough to give us a more accurate prediction two days from D-Day, and not shot-gun an All Out Warning to everyone from Georgia to Key West that another Storm of the Century is going to blow everyone's house away!

And as of this morning's 11:00am Update, Dorian won't even make landfall in Florida! So they were totally wrong... Pathetic!!!

So my point is still valid: I could have posted my own 'Cone of Uncertainty' from mid-Georgia to Key West as easily as they did! I am, still, unimpressed!

Last edited by Rumann Koch; 08-31-2019 at 10:23 AM..
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Old 08-31-2019, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Northern Wisconsin
9,938 posts, read 8,613,124 times
Reputation: 17600
Pretty hard to predict God. All storms are somewhat unpredictable. The best weather predicting I've seen was in the plains and Az. But it seems like the closer you are to large bodies of water, the weather is more unpredictable.

I think the weather service is pretty good. But the hype and downright false reporting makes it worse.
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Old 08-31-2019, 11:27 AM
Status: "wake me up when the mob family is gone!" (set 1 day ago)
 
2,322 posts, read 2,829,346 times
Reputation: 2230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumann Koch View Post
Yes, I have lived in FTL (in the same house) for over 50 years, so I actually have more real-time experience with hurricanes than most of the weather celebrities. Also in those 50 years I have learned a lot of meteorological stuff. I was also a surfer and a sailor so I know how to read the skies and the ocean. And yes, Weebles wobble!

And AFAIC - if, at the start of Hurricane Season (June 1) a Florida resident does not already have food, medical, and other supplies for at least one week, know how to put up their shutters, know to fill their bathtubs with water and gas tanks with fuel... then they are ALREADY UNPREPARED!

Everyone around here, mostly newcomers to S FL, were freaking out yesterday while the weather celebrities kept predicting the EOTW! That is NOT a service to the Community nor is it useful to LT residents who actually know WTF they are dealing with!



No!

1. it was not four days out, but only two
2. I don't expect exact GPS coordinates, but Jesus can't they narrow it down to a hundred miles or less!?

Given that we are almost in 2020, I would expect the technology to have improved substantially enough to give us a more accurate prediction two days from D-Day, and not shot-gun an All Out Warning to everyone from Georgia to Key West that another Storm of the Century is going to blow everyone's house away!

And as of this morning's 11:00am Update, Dorian won't even make landfall in Florida! So they were totally wrong... Pathetic!!!

So my point is still valid: I could have posted my own 'Cone of Uncertainty' from mid-Georgia to Key West as easily as they did! I am, still, unimpressed!
I have to agree with you but then our local weather forecasters can't even get it right what the weather will do this afternoon so it might be too much to expect, I can look at a local radar map and predict it just as well myself.

When it comes to serious weather systems I only look at the euro model but to everyone's defense there are a whole lot of unprepared and stupid people out there that seem to need a lot of guidance.
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Old 08-31-2019, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,095 posts, read 56,544,043 times
Reputation: 12755
Print This. Re-Read This. Save This.


I'll sound like a broken record to those who follow me on the weather forum but it seems like there are new people that just don't get it. (majority of population doesn't actually)

Every single forecast you see, whether its on an app, online, newscasts, ect is NOT generated by guessing or by picking it out of a hat. It's formed by using the only tool we have available to make a forecast. It's called a weather model. That's it. There are a ton of them out there and every forecasters job is to look, analyze and make the best forecast based on CURRENT consensus of the weather models.

There will be some models that are the outlier (like a horse that has 100 to 1 odds). If you choose to make a forecast based on a model that isn't agreeing with consensus than odds are against you. BUT.. even when there is consensus among models, the atmosphere is complex and things change so you have to stay on top of changes.

Past 11-14 days + is considered fantasy land
Past 6-10 days is considered long range.
4-6 days is mid range
1-3 days is short range


So you have 3 choices as a person.
1. Learn how to read the models yourself so you can understand them and make your own forecast & plans
2. Understand forecasts can and will always change and continue using them
3. Stop whining about forecasts being wrong

I won't get into how to understand how models work but when a storm hasn't even happened yet it's a joke to hear people complaining.

If you're following Dorian's thread you would of saw that the Euro model saw the recurve first (4 days before) and it was when the rest followed that it was obvious what was happening, so forecasts were being adjusted. So if you're using a 5-8 day forecast as a guarantee you need to re-read #1.


Has there been times where models agreed 5-10 days out. Absolutely. And that's why you need to stay on top of forecasts (or models) to see if there's any changes or consistency.
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Florida
21,050 posts, read 21,442,639 times
Reputation: 25424
Not being any kind of weather forecaster by any stretch of the imagination, it certainly did seem, from my memory, that living in eastern upstate New York, it was pretty much reliable to a degree, that "weather" was going to come from the west (Lake Erie area)to the east.
I gave all of that up since moving to Florida where storms pop up out of "nowhere" and can dissipate just as quickly.
THe most reliable thing to do is look out the window.
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:05 PM
 
Location: NMB, SC
6,317 posts, read 1,653,517 times
Reputation: 8869
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobdreamz View Post
I wonder why the Euro model always seems more accurate than the American one.
I refuse to put on the Weather Channel. They do nothing but create a frenzy of fear for every single storm that hits the radar.

Obviously though, if you live in areas possibly affected then you should be aware and monitor the situation but there are so many more objective places to get your updates.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:02 PM
 
9,706 posts, read 9,361,070 times
Reputation: 5933
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumann Koch View Post
Yes, I have lived in FTL (in the same house) for over 50 years, so I actually have more real-time experience with hurricanes than most of the weather celebrities. Also in those 50 years I have learned a lot of meteorological stuff. I was also a surfer and a sailor so I know how to read the skies and the ocean. And yes, Weebles wobble!

And AFAIC - if, at the start of Hurricane Season (June 1) a Florida resident does not already have food, medical, and other supplies for at least one week, know how to put up their shutters, know to fill their bathtubs with water and gas tanks with fuel... then they are ALREADY UNPREPARED!

Everyone around here, mostly newcomers to S FL, were freaking out yesterday while the weather celebrities kept predicting the EOTW! That is NOT a service to the Community nor is it useful to LT residents who actually know WTF they are dealing with!



No!

1. it was not four days out, but only two
2. I don't expect exact GPS coordinates, but Jesus can't they narrow it down to a hundred miles or less!?

Given that we are almost in 2020, I would expect the technology to have improved substantially enough to give us a more accurate prediction two days from D-Day, and not shot-gun an All Out Warning to everyone from Georgia to Key West that another Storm of the Century is going to blow everyone's house away!

And as of this morning's 11:00am Update, Dorian won't even make landfall in Florida! So they were totally wrong... Pathetic!!!

So my point is still valid: I could have posted my own 'Cone of Uncertainty' from mid-Georgia to Key West as easily as they did! I am, still, unimpressed!
You want to predict monster storms that have a mind of their own days out. All they can do is tell us what the model feeds tell them. Those model feeds CHANGE ... I'd rather get a heads up 4 days out that something is coming ...then have it not COME. You do realize that with these storms 90 percent of the forecast area will feel it was a miss. The small piece that got the warning ...well...thats who matters.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:14 PM
 
4,270 posts, read 2,159,679 times
Reputation: 1576
With the pace & development of tech, Moore’s Law, it can be frustrating that Hurricane forecasting only increases a little each year. It’s not just reading models. It’s also understanding different weather patterns/phenomena, regional weather and geography, oceanography, lightning study, etc. And yes the cone can be looked at like a catch-all, and it kinda is in that the cone is the average NHC forecast error in track on day x based on the last 5-year average of forecasting by NHC. And that average is coming down each year, all be-it slowly. And the 5-day cone wasn’t even introduced until after the early 2000’s...we only had a 3-day cone before then!
Anyone Else Unimpressed by Current Hurricane Forecasting?-aa197660-24ac-44db-a3da-7fc22efbf6ec.jpeg
1970-2016 NHC’s forecast skill shown, there’s newer but I couldn’t quickly locate this evening while on the road.

And here’s Katrina cone original (left), and same in 2015’s cone size.
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/stat...55408671375360


Have they gotten better? No question. Are we there yet...far from it.
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Old 09-01-2019, 07:18 AM
 
Location: Florida
12,725 posts, read 6,084,779 times
Reputation: 25945
With Hurricane Irma back in 2017, we were told it was going to hit us (SW Coast) and because it was such a large storm I was planning on evacuating for the first time in 50 years. No hotels/motels had vacancies in the middle of the state. My son was planning on going to NC with his daughter to visit a friend in Charlotte. I was going to go with them but when the forecasters said it was going to hit the east coast, I decided to stay because of my cat.

P.S. - last minute Irma turns and makes a direct hit on the SW Coast, just about 25 miles south of where I was living. It was the scariest storm I've ever experienced and I've lived through Charley, Wilma and some bad ones in NC. I thought it would never end. Fortunately my sister has a whole house generator but her septic tank started backing up because the drainfield was flooded, not only by Irma, but the huge amount of rain we had prior to Irma because of Harvey passing by. I get home to my condo about 5 minutes from my sister and our electricity never even went out there. One of the few places in Lee County that didn't lose electricity.
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Old 09-01-2019, 07:29 AM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
18,565 posts, read 28,183,522 times
Reputation: 14524
Quote:
Originally Posted by chiluvr1228 View Post
With Hurricane Irma back in 2017, we were told it was going to hit us (SW Coast) and because it was such a large storm I was planning on evacuating for the first time in 50 years. No hotels/motels had vacancies in the middle of the state. My son was planning on going to NC with his daughter to visit a friend in Charlotte. I was going to go with them but when the forecasters said it was going to hit the east coast, I decided to stay because of my cat.

P.S. - last minute Irma turns and makes a direct hit on the SW Coast, just about 25 miles south of where I was living. It was the scariest storm I've ever experienced and I've lived through Charley, Wilma and some bad ones in NC. I thought it would never end. Fortunately my sister has a whole house generator but her septic tank started backing up because the drainfield was flooded, not only by Irma, but the huge amount of rain we had prior to Irma because of Harvey passing by. I get home to my condo about 5 minutes from my sister and our electricity never even went out there. One of the few places in Lee County that didn't lose electricity.
My sisters lived in Naples and Ft Myers and I remember that "will it or won't it" with irma. They were prepared and ready, then relaxed, then at the last minute it came. This is why people who complain about ALL THE HYPE are beyond me. So what if you get prepared and don't need it? You live n Hurricane Territory you should have all that stuff anyway.
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