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Old 09-05-2019, 02:00 PM
 
10,361 posts, read 3,101,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HouseBuilder328 View Post
Why would we think predicting hurricanes would be close to 100% or even 80% accuracy? The weather is a result of Earth's amazing atmosphere and not to mention, the weather on this planet is STABLE due to our moon. The interactions of physics, astronomy and other science makes it impossible to predict everything to your liking.

Can you imagine predicting weather on other planets that "wobble" on its axis?
I don't. But lots of people think the hurricane forecasters are some kind of brilliant gods who should never be questioned. And that a cone that covers an entire state = accuracy.

Tropical Tidbits explains what is happening. He doesn't make predictions.

The best indicator of an impending hurricane? Watch the bird migration. Animals know. If birds cleared out? You are in deep doo doo.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:36 AM
 
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Default We have been dodging Florida hurricanes for many years.

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Originally Posted by Rumann Koch View Post
All I hear from so-called weather 'experts' is how hurricane forecasting has gotten better and better in the past few years.

Currently we are only about two days from an expected landfall for the most recent ‘Hurricane of the Century”, Dorian, SOMEWHERE on the coast of Florida, yet the ‘Cone of Uncertainty’ has not narrowed to a more precise target for days, but instead, has expanded to where it now encompasses the entire state of Florida, from Key West to Jacksonville, plus half of Georgia! And they tell us that Dorian could actually miss land entirely and stay offshore! So they have EVERYTHING covered! Well, I really think that I could have published that on my own by observing satellite images along with having lived in Florida for over fifty years!

This is not the first time where the ‘experts’ have directed people to take action based on a large amount of uncertainty. Remember when they had entire regions of people evacuate from East Florida to West only to reverse that decision!

So am I the only one who is completely unimpressed by the level of competence and usefulness of Hurricane Forecasting by the National Hurricane Center, Weather Channel, etc.? It seems like the ‘experts’ are just CYA, pushing sensationalism, and driving everyone in the Southeast crazy, racing around town clearing store shelves, and battling each other in line at the gas pumps. Makes you wonder if Home Depot, Lowes, and gas and water companies are behind this.

Maybe I’m jaded because I live in South Florida, and it seems to qualify as a weatherperson you have to be young, pretty, and wear revealing outfits while wearing high-heeled shoes, or be stupid enough to go outside during a hurricane and get blown around while admonishing others not to do EXACTLY that.



We have been dodging Florida hurricanes for 34 years. I'm a retired I.T. guy and have followed hurricanes for years via a software called (GRIB) the program is free it gives very accurate forecasts of snowstorms, hurricanes, etc. The rain measurements down to a fraction of an inch or MM, in any minute map area are extraordinarily accurate. Same goes for wind speeds, ocean temperatures, land temperatures etc. This last round of forecasting and tracking by GRIB has been spot on hourly, daily, for seven days before or after the hurricane event. I have recommended it to many weather services.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:42 PM
 
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Originally Posted by corolla5speed View Post
This last round of forecasting and tracking by GRIB has been spot on hourly, daily, for seven days before or after the hurricane event. I have recommended it to many weather services.
Like to see that... it forcasted the storm to turn north off the Florida coast at 7 days out? I don't believe that one.
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