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Wed 18Sept2019 5aEDT/AST: Invest 97L, to TD10, now Tropical Storm Jerry. On average the 10th named storm genesis date is October 19th.
Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1004mb. Located about 960miles(1,545km) East of Leeward Islands. Steadily strengthening, hurricane likely by near Caribbean, dry air and wind shear should help keep it from going much past a Cat1 near the Caribbean at least. NHC track has it going just N of Puerto Rico and turning N just before Bahamas. Will watch for any deviations with that.
Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6 hours at 5 & 11a/pEDT/AST here (also at 2 & 8a/pEDT if Watch/Warning issued): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Wed 8pEDT/AST,9pADT: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 1000mb. Movement speed pretty fast for this region. Overall track unchanged. NHC'S 8p cone map shows maybe weaker system just E of Bahamas as turns up North late this weekend (maybe Tropical Storm instead of Cat1). Wild card would be it's very tiny size which may try to strengthen more but not the best environment ahead for Jerry.
Tropical Storm Watch Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba & St. Eustatius. TS winds go out up to 45miles(75km) from center.
Thurs 11aEDT/AST,12pADT: Winds 75mph(120km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 988mb. Cat1 hurricane. Small storm, hurricane force winds go out only 10miles from center, TS winds 45miles. Slightest bump left in cone track but pretty much unchanged, turns up before Bahamas.
Fri 20Sept 5aEDT/AST,6aADT: Winds 105mph(165km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 981mb. Cat2. Located about 290miles(465km) E of Leeward Islands. Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 80miles(130km). Overall should start steadily weakening today, pressure already up signaling this may have started.
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