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Old 09-14-2019, 03:05 AM
 
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Fri 13Sept2019 11pEDT/AST: Invest 95L, to PTC9, to TD9, now Tropical Storm Humberto. On average the 8th named storm genesis date is Sept 24th.

Sat 5aEDT/AST: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1007mb. Located about 70miles(110km) E of Great Abaco Island, about 170miles(270km) E of Freeport, Bahamas. Tropical Storm winds extend up to 90miles(150km) from center, mainly to its North. More Sub-Tropical shaped in appearance (comma shape). TS Warning portions of NW Bahamas. All Watches for US coast have been dropped.

NHC has storm slowly making a turn out safely off the SE US coast Sun-Mon, maybe hurricane by late Sun or early Mon, then possibly threatening Bermuda Wednesday/Thursday. Heavy rains accompany system, may be just close enough for some showers right at SE US coast but overall stay offshore. Steering it are two High pressures: 1 in E US, 1 in Atlantic, and trough in NE US. Overall guidance heads out to sea between the High's but watch for any swings back some closer towards coast or not late next week but overall that currently appears to be Nova Scotia / Newfoundland concern.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 3 hours (while Watches/Warnings posted, 5 & 11 only thereafter) at 2, 5, 8 & 11a/pEDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Tidbits issued a discussion video just before it was named Friday evening, always highly recommend them: https://youtu.be/8PhzbYVuwSU
His newest are right on home page: https://tropicaltidbits.com/

Imagery:
FL - Caribbean region (GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...G16&sector=car
SE US (GOES 16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...=G16&sector=se
E US / Bermuda (GOES 16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...G16&sector=eus
Close up Mesoscale (Taken every 60seconds, GOES 16, link changes so find link near top 'North Atlantic Ocean', etc.): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
Floater imagery via TropicalTidbits: https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satl...09L&product=ir


https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...98051062362117
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Old 09-14-2019, 06:34 AM
 
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Some of the overnight models for the curious:
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status...12786499563520
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Old 09-14-2019, 10:21 AM
 
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Euro models still have a few members with a turn back some: **note: this was from early overnight runs, newest Euro comes out in just a couple hours.
https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...03839072210948
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Old 09-14-2019, 05:49 PM
 
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Sat 5pEDT/AST: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NNW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1005mb. Located about 70miles(115km) N of Great Abaco Island Bahamas. Tropical Storm winds extend up to 140miles(220km) from center, mainly Eastern half of storm.

All Warnings have been discontinued. Wind shear decreasing, center finally getting under convection, steadily strengthening. NHC cone shows a slow down in movement speed Sunday afternoon, followed by a turn more NE overnight into Monday while becoming a hurricane.
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Old 09-14-2019, 08:47 PM
 
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Sat 11pEDT/AST: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NNW 6mph(9km/h), pressure 1000mb. Located about 85miles(135km) N of Great Abaco Island Bahamas. Tropical Storm winds extend up to 160miles(260km) from center, mainly Eastern half of storm.

Has about 3-4 days to strengthen it appears, may reach Cat2/3. US SE coast at low 5% chance of Tropical Storm winds (39+mph), Bermuda 70% chance; Bermuda also at 20-30% chance of hurricane force winds and should keep a close eye on track.
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Old 09-14-2019, 09:09 PM
 
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Will mention the evening Euro 18z’s sketti models, after the initial turn away from SE US coast at beginning of week, several Euro members try to bring storm back towards US some instead of more grouped together out to sea. Hopefully just a temporary result and not uncertainty/changes in steering currents next week. Time will tell. Not out to sea until it is.
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Old 09-15-2019, 08:09 AM
 
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Sun 5aEDT/AST: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NNW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1000mb. Storm has been ingesting dry air from the S last night helping prevent intensification. Looks like it's closing that off now but still trailing in from the SE. Likely hurricane later today/tonight, slows and turns NE away from SE US by sometime Monday. Looks like only effect to SE US will be some wave action and high rip current threat, a small chance a few stray showers come along right at the immediate coast. Giving watch/warnings are time based, Bermuda will likely see Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches posted Monday, storm may pass near late Wednesday night.

NHC remains confident that storm continues out to sea. Overnight guidance suggest storm may do a quick turn N/NW then back to out to sea well offshore of land at some point on its journey out.

https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...37168464179200
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Old 09-15-2019, 05:12 PM
 
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Sun 5PEDT/AST: Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving N 6mph(9km/h), pressure 989mb. Hurricane any moment now. Nice eye visible on long range radar from Florida:
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...69273340891142
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Old 09-15-2019, 05:30 PM
 
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The Euro(ECMWF) models still have a wide range of possibilities shown...not necessarily unusual, just usually the Euro is more certain about things...there's a very large spread in it's models still today. NHC says the Trough and cold front moving S near Canada/NE US "is forecast by the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an outlier scenario at this time." So for now just mentioning as an FYI. Overall guidance is for storm to head near Bermuda, then a wobble N/NW very briefly, if at all, then out to sea. So most likely scenario currently is out to sea but keep an eye on it in case something changes.


https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1173368045709873152
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Old 09-15-2019, 08:46 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Cool link I have to explore more.

https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/st...26336699805697
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