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Old 09-22-2019, 05:07 AM
 
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Sun 22Sept2019 5aEDT/AST,6aADT: Invest 99L becomes Tropical Storm Karen. On average the 11th named storm genesis date is November 23rd. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 1005mb. Located about 100miles(165km) East of Grenada, about 120miles(190km) SE of St. Vincent.

Tropical Storm Warning Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada.
Tropical Storm Watch St. Vincent & Grenadines.
Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands likely get TS Watches today.
Additional Watch/Warnings possible other islands depending on structure & timing of first turn North.

Under wind shear next 2days = little to no intensification, then conditions improve. Turns NW Sun/Mon, N Tue, then models more and more show High pressure ridge build back in and force Karen West towards end of the week and turn it towards the US or Cuba.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 3 hours at 2, 5, 8 & 11a/pEDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...99547516858371
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Old 09-22-2019, 05:08 AM
 
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Model guidance supports turn West at end of this week:
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status...25512829915136
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Old 09-22-2019, 05:35 AM
 
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Radar loop via Barbados weather service: Sabre||Reflectivity||EC_Bar
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Old 09-22-2019, 10:59 AM
Status: "Newlywed 5/25/2020" (set 24 days ago)
 
Location: Brooklyn Center, MN
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Hurricane Karen? I don't know what's worse... the impending wrath and destruction or the horribly unfunny memes coming about a hurricane wanting to talk to a manager.
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Old 09-22-2019, 11:51 AM
 
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Sun 22Sept2019 2pEDT/AST,1pADT: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1006mb. Located about 60miles(95km) N of Grenada, about 85miles(135km) WSW of St. Vincent. Scattered rain totals from near nothing to several inches of rain have caused here and there flooding in portions of Trinidad & Tobago (via social media images).

Tropical Storm Warning: Grenada, St. Vincent & Grenadines (Trinidad & Tobago discontinued now)
Tropical Storm Watch: US & British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico.
Possible rains of 3-6inch, isolated 8in Windward Islands, 2-4in; isolated 6in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands; 1-3in isolated 5in Leeward Islands; another 1-3inches N Venezuela & Barbados.
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Old 09-22-2019, 02:24 PM
 
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All duds that won't effect FL.
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Old 09-22-2019, 07:21 PM
 
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Sun 22Sept 8pEDT/AST,9pADT: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1007mb. Barely holding on tonight but keeps firing up new storms. Seems like it's jumped Southwest putting it just off coast of Venezuela. Should start lifting up more NW/N soon. I've seen storms get too low like this and bite the dust so we'll see what happens over next 24hours. Euro has it dissipating and reforming just South of Puerto Rico. Models seem to overall keep the system weak now and if it survives still send it West towards US but again, most models keep it weak Tropical Storm.
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Old 09-23-2019, 06:26 AM
 
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Mon AM: Karen made it through the night and pulled away from Venezuela. Doesn’t look great though...similar to the blob of Jerry in appearance. May or may not stay a Tropical Storm, but scattered rains to the regions it travels regardless. Will be fighting high wind shear. Still questions on what happens after Puerto Rico.
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Old 09-23-2019, 09:33 AM
 
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Mon 23Sept 11aEDT/AST,12pADT: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1007mb. Recon finds Karen may have weakened to an open tropical wave possibly loosing its circulation but it may be in process of jumping center to new area of storms popping up so they left as a Tropical Storm classification for now. Either way heavy scattered showers to Puerto Rico / Virgin islands region where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. On Friday Karen expected to stall / turn more West somewhere between Puerto Rico & Bermuda.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...49034383200258
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Old 09-23-2019, 10:36 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
All duds that won't effect FL.
i like duds. duds are good.
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