2020 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (predict, flood, TX, Texas)

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

July is never active. I am ready for some action and pray i get something this year. Look well east after Aug 10th.

Ya, pretty much all signs point to busy wave train ahead over the Atlantic’s MDR.

[Psychoma]

Ok, well there’s this little guy to watch in the Gulf but nothing imminent:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...11138485383175

[Soccernerd]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Ok, well there’s this little guy to watch in the Gulf but nothing imminent:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...11138485383175

Showers and thunderstorms are moving east to west from the Gulf further inland into Texas. I doubt that anything will come of it, but it will provide some needed rain.

[Psychoma]

Sun 19July 8a:
Disorganized blob near Hispaniola, quickly heading into Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear high so should keep it from doing anything until in the Gulf. Heads generally towards Texas but at a quick pace. NHC has low 20% chance formation of it Wed/Thurs before moving inland late this week. Regardless of any development, it may bring a few inches of rain with to coastal regions of the NW/W Gulf by late this week.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...52156206510081

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Ok, well there’s this little guy to watch in the Gulf but nothing imminent:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...11138485383175

Not gonna effect FL.

[Psychoma]

Mon 20July 6aEDT:
Atlantic:
-System near Bahamas/Cuba still low 20% chance development in the Gulf. It's moving so quick even if something did form it likely wouldn't have time to get it's act together much.
-Tropical Wave halfway between Africa/Caribbean looking better organized. NHC has low 20% chance development saying conditions not as favorable for development later in the week.
E/C Pac:
-TD7e forms about 1,300miles(2,090km) WSW of tip of Baja, short lived.
-Disorganized showers a few hundred miles to the SE of TD7e are on a more favorable track, NHC has high 80% chance formation, model guidance suggest TD or Tropical Storm this week as heads generally towards Hawaii but suggest storm falls apart or begins to weaken as it approaches the islands later this weekend. Hawaii should monitor its progress.

[LKJ1988]

We should get some added lift thanks to the easterly wave to out southeast once it goes south and then west of us.

[Psychoma]

20July 2pEDT:
E Pac: the disturbance well SE of TD7E has become TD8E, soon to be Tropical Storm. NHC going with possible Hurricane by mid/late week.

[Psychoma]

Mon 20July 1030p:
Atlantic:
-Area near Cuba 30% chance formation. Aircraft recon may start checking it out tomorrow.
-Area near TX/LA 10% chance, blob of showers moving onshore ahead of above blob.
-Area over central Atlantic looking a tad more organized from day before, NHC at 20% chance formation.

E Pac
-TD7E falling apart
-TD8E becomes Douglas
-Area well S of Mexico low 20% chance formation

[Psychoma]

Tue 21July 8aEDT/7aCDT:
Atlantic:
-Blob near Cuba up to 40% chance developing Wed-Fri as moves towards TX/LA, biggest threat currently heavy scattered showers that region.
-Area in mid-Atlantic 60% chance but not a lot of model support for keeping it together past Lesser Antilles.