2020 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (Raleigh, best, mountains, days)

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/SteveMacNBC6/sta...098941445?s=19

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/WeatherBug/statu...273088002?s=19

[Psychoma]

Tue 28July midday:
Air recon checks storm out this afternoon. Satellite & buoy info suggest already producing Tropical Storm winds around 40mph. System appears elongated from SW to NE direction so may not have a nice closed low level circulation but appears it’s heading that way. Heavy scattered showers and flooding rains to come through the islands, gusty winds. Slow strengthening expected. I think NHC’s 3 day cone map is good, but days 4 & 5 hide the uncertainty that far out currently. Exact center formation still unknown given broad structure. Question on if interacts with Hispaniola...the “Hurricane shredder” with high mountains. If takes a more Northern track towards Bahamas and misses Hispaniola I think we’ll see a stronger storm start to emerge and I think this is a bigger threat across the majority of or somewhere along/near the US East coast. Weaker system closer to Hispaniola likely tracks more West than North, more Cuba or somewhere to FL perhaps. We shall see.

[Psychoma]

Recon out in the storm to see what we have: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[ersatz]

Originally Posted by Cambium

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/statu...26180678250497

For several years I lived in Senegal. The level of info we are accustomed to in the US and Europe is more or less non-existent when you live in (non-South African) Africa. I watched with interest from the ground the weather systems that swept through West Africa as they stormed their way across Senegal and then boiled off the coast to coalesce around the Cape Verde islands. Usually, storm systems kind of withered and died south west of the islands. The ones that survived then barreled across the Atlantic gathering a head of steam as they bloated into the classic Cape Verde Canes around late August and September.

In northern Senegal, the rainy season is late August and the month of September. July is normally only a few isolated weak sprinkles. This July is very active and probably means that August will be a Cape Verde Cane creator. Anyone who is really interested in hurricane genesis should keep an eye on the major storms peeling off the West African coast.

[LKJ1988]

Not holding my hand out for any action from this system as it will never be much at all. With my luck it will turn north and stay east of FL. Best case for me would be it gets in the gulf and loops back to the NE bringing me rain. But not gonna happen.

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by ersatz

For several years I lived in Senegal. The level of info we are accustomed to in the US and Europe is more or less non-existent when you live in (non-South African) Africa. I watched with interest from the ground the weather systems that swept through West Africa as they stormed their way across Senegal and then boiled off the coast to coalesce around the Cape Verde islands. Usually, storm systems kind of withered and died south west of the islands. The ones that survived then barreled across the Atlantic gathering a head of steam as they bloated into the classic Cape Verde Canes around late August and September.

In northern Senegal, the rainy season is late August and the month of September. July is normally only a few isolated weak sprinkles. This July is very active and probably means that August will be a Cape Verde Cane creator. Anyone who is really interested in hurricane genesis should keep an eye on the major storms peeling off the West African coast.

There’s another vigorous Tropical wave emerging off Senegal / West Africa now that may try to develop. From what I understand it’s been very wet across the Sahel region this year, potentially more moisture for storms to work with this season.

[Psychoma]

PTC9 running into Lesser Antilles now with scattered rains, some heavy, breezy conditions. The two main lobes associated with the overall broad elongated structure, one SW, one NE corners starting their anticipated motion to a more S / N orientation. Doesn’t look like it has a defined center yet but it’s on its way. NHC at 8p said center jumped (common in weak systems), not sure how much of that will make it into the evening model runs. Going to take another day or two to figure out what it’s really going to do but we’re only a few days away from potential US, Bahamas, and/or Cuba impacts.

[LKJ1988]

Just pray it can track west of me 70 miles and stall and bring me 10" of rain to make up for a very dry year.

Just everything is wrong for this system to get strong as upper levels and the high peaks on the islands won't be of any help. But a weak system can bring rain and that is what i need.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

There’s another vigorous Tropical wave emerging off Senegal / West Africa now that may try to develop. From what I understand it’s been very wet across the Sahel region this year, potentially more moisture for storms to work with this season.

Upper levels are not right for this system as well.