2020 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (Louisiana, classification, moist, health)

[Psychoma]

96L off the mid-Atlantic coast becomes Tropical Storm Kyle.

[floridarebel]

Lots of weak short storms. Definitely a quantitate over qualitative season.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

Lots of weak short storms. Definitely a quantitate over qualitative season.

Upper levels, shear and dry air aloft are not right at all for anything strong for the next many days.

[Psychoma]

Sun 16Aug 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT,5aPDT,11pHST(Sat):
Atlantic:
-System behind Josephine about 850miles E of Windward Islands may have chance to develop in Western Caribbean in several days, currently 30% chance.
-System emerging off Africa looks to take a little more Northern track similar to Josephine, 30% chance for formation next 5-days.
E Pac:
-System S of Mexico develops any minute.
-TD10E between Mexico & Hawaii barely moving in circles, not doing anything.
-TD11E may be named shortly but falls apart this week well away from land.
C Pac:
-System well S of Hawaii high 70% chance formation, invest "90C"
-Another area West of that low 20% chance. Both stay away from HI.

[Psychoma]

Sun 16Aug afternoon:
Atlantic:
-Area E of Caribbean 40% chance formation as heads across Caribbean and possibly into Gulf of Mexico.
-Area just off Africa 40% chance formation as heads WNW.
-Too early to know if anything will become of these but as we head into heart of Hurricane season all areas must be watched. Models haven't locked onto anything but do show hints of possible development.
E Pac:
-Fausto & Genevieve form off West coast of Mexico.
-TD10E falls apart.
C Pac:
-Two areas well S of HI at 20 & 70% chance formation as they head West.

[Psychoma]

Mon 17Aug 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT,5pPDT,2pHST:
Atlantic:
-Invest "97L” crossing Windward Islands, 60% formation chance in Western Caribbean later in the week. Not a lot of model support for much development currently but it's there. Wait and see.
-Invest "98L" about 1/3 to halfway from Africa to Caribbean, high 90% formation chance. More model support for development near Leeward Islands. Too early to know what happens yet.

Invest ##L = Number given to track/communicate a blob/trough of disorganized showers with future tropical development potential, the "L" means in Atlantic basin (Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean), (A is taken by Arabian Sea cyclones.) The numbers repeat 90 to 99 so when looking up info anywhere be sure to check the dates and make sure current. The NHC updates % chance formation every 6hours at 2 & 8a/pEDT here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

E Pac:
-See Genevieve thread.
-Remnants of TD10 10% chance re-formation as drifts West.

C Pac:
-Area about 800miles SW of HI 30% chance formation as heads further away West into W Pac.

[Psychoma]

Tue 18Aug evening:
-97L (in Caribbean) 80% chance formation when gets closer to Jamaica - Cuba - Yucatan/Belize region
-98L (Atlantic) 90% chance, but basically a very elongated trough with 2 spins to it, models don't do well with a mess like that.
-Wait and see game for both.

[LKJ1988]

Still see nothing worth a hoot as the upper levels just are not right.

[Psychoma]

Wed 19Aug 8aEDT:
97L 80% chance formation.
98L 90% chance, but high wind shear awaits it near Northern Caribbean islands.
New wave emerging off Africa 20% but hostile conditions ahead of it soon.

[LKJ1988]

Still nothing is gonna happen. Everything is wrong for anything strong.