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NHC has released their 2020 product changes list:
-New 60hour data point to be added...if you remember the NHC 'Discussion' page when a storm is out there and at the bottom it list predicted winds and location at 12hours, 24hours, ....72 hours, 96hours and 120 hours out, we'll now 60hours out will be added and that point will be added to the cone maps.
-The 'cone' size is basically unchanged (overall the cone shrinks very slightly each year).
-Adding experimental map graphic this year which will represent the possible surge value text already contained in the Public Advisory text product. This graphic looks like what you typically see on a local news channel with a colored bar along coastal regions and range in feet of potential water heights from surge. (see link for pic of it).
-Local time zones to be added to some products for better communication when it comes to the East Atlantic regions instead of blanket AST time.
Friday 24Apr, NHC upped to 80% formation chance but likely falls apart in a few days regardless. Appears it’s being helped currently by a passing Kelvin Wave. https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...19948805369867
Time for another season! History and studies tells us if you prepare now you can experience less stress/anxiety, you'll know your boundaries on when to set your plan into motion, when to leave and where you'll go. Start today!
I have never understood the value of the hurricane forecasts, by predicting the upcoming season will be more/less active than in the past. What specific steps are recommended, based on the severity of the hurricane forecast? Do you stock up less water if the season is predicted to be a light one?
I have seen comments that it helps agencies "prepare" for the upcoming season. What do they do differently, based on the forecast?
I am not trying to be difficult - just want to understand the value of the time and effort spent to put together the predictions and what specific actions citizens (or agencies) should do now, based on the forecast.
Valid points and topic comes up every spring. I can't recall if there were some military/Navy origins in predicting a season originally several decades ago, but I think mainly these days it serves as a reminder that hurricane season is about to begin. From a citizen or agency standpoint, preparations / actions should be the same every single year regardless of seasonal forecast (same or improve plans each year).
1992 is a good example where seasonal forecast don't necessarily do much or may hurt preparations if people let their guard down...it was below average season but was the year Cat5 Andrew barreled across S FL. So you may hear the "it only takes one" motto.
I guess part of it is because we can, we do, type of things with decades of data to go on. Some have talked about changing to a landfall probability seasonal forecast instead (but we're not there yet in science/tech), or doing away with them. I think they'll stick around for quite some time, but as for value? Other than awareness I would have to say typically the forecast explain why below or above average season like warmer waters, less wind shear in specific regions, etc. and that info has a lot more benefit and insight than actual number of storms prediction I believe even though the focus seems to always be the storm numbers themselves.
Tuesday 5May: Model guidance shows chance of scattered showers blob quickly move across Gulf of Mexico towards south/central FL late this weekend into start of next week. Chances currently very low it tries to obtain some sort of Tropical / Sub-Tropical characteristics & as of now likely just scattered rains, maybe breezy but will keep an eye on it. May is the most likely time a tropical system forms outside of 'hurricane season'.
Sunday 10May: All quiet. Enjoy your Mother's Day! In May we typically watch for any potential weaker storm development in E Gulf of Mexico, N Caribbean or US Atlantic east coast regions as well as East Pacific along W Mexican coast.
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