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Old 08-19-2020, 09:37 PM
 
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Wed 19Aug evening:
-97L 80% chance formation.
-98L becomes TD13.
-Wave emerging off Africa 40% chance formation.

E Pac: Area S of Genevieve 50% chance formation.
C Pac: Area well SW of Hawaii 10%
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Old 08-19-2020, 10:01 PM
 
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Wed 19Aug 11pEDT/AST,10pCDT TD13:
-Winds 35mph(55km/h)
-Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
-Pressure 1008mb.
-Tropical Storm Watch Saba and St. Eustatius, these will quickly expand to neighboring islands.
-Cone map has strengthening storm near FL late Sunday into Monday.
-NHC says if goes more over/near islands then weaker storm, if stays further North then much stronger storm possible. Stay tuned!
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...79841487179778
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Old 08-20-2020, 09:35 AM
 
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Thurs 20Aug 1030aEDT.930aCDT- invest 97L becomes Tropical Depression 14 (TD14), NHC will issue first cone map, storm stats, etc at 11aEDT.
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Old 08-20-2020, 10:07 AM
 
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TD13 & TD14 cone maps Thurs 20Aug 11aEDT/10aCDT:
https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...63261928488965
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Old 08-20-2020, 11:35 AM
 
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TD 13 forecast to take an interesting path, perhaps near Tampa.
Tampa is way overdue, if memory serves correct; they haven't been directly hit in over a century.
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Old 08-20-2020, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Not likely "BOTH" will be strong unless there is enough gap between. Usually 1 will take away energy from another and be the stronger one.

Or both be weak




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Old 08-20-2020, 08:40 PM
 
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Thurs 20Aug evening:
-Edge of Africa 50% chance formation, but dry air likely takes over within a few days.

"TD13" (Atlantic):
-Winds 35mph(55km/h), moving WNW 21mph(33km/h), pressure 1009mb.
-Regardless of classification heavy sctrd rains to islands, gusty winds.
-Air recon shows very elongated center. Winds shear on the N side, dry air nearby.
-If storm stays more N of islands = better chance at being stronger in FL/Bahamas region, if closer/over islands = better chance of weaker storm. Some models dissipate the storm before FL, others bring in a fairly strong hurricane. Too early to know which way this may go. Best to prepare for possible hurricane early next week just in case.
-NHC notes that "overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal."

"TD14" (W Caribbean):
-Winds 35mph(55km/h), moving W 17mph(29km/h), pressure 1007mb.
-Elongated center as well, looked much better earlier, but very nice outflow it appears.
-Clips or 'landfalls' into Nicaragua/Honduras and turns towards Yucatan strengthening.
-If more East of Yucatan then likely stronger storm into the Gulf, if goes well over Yucatan then likely weaker but still Tropical Storm. Whatever becomes of it then heads towards US Gulf coast (Louisiana give or take). Uncertainty remains.

Regardless of outcomes, expect heavy scattered tropical moisture rains across the Southern US and eventually SE US next week into next weekend.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-20-2020 at 09:01 PM..
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Old 08-20-2020, 10:24 PM
 
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Thurs 20Aug 11pEDT/10pCDT: TD14 improving, named TS soon, Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning issued E Yucatan Peninsula & Hurricane for the TX/LA coast next week forecast. Really impressive outflow for a depression.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:19 AM
 
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Fri 21Aug 5aEDT/4aCDT:
-TD13 not healthy, track shifted S, if center jumps may change once again.
-TD14 can’t decide which spin will dominate, until one takes over = weaker short term.
-Both look to be in each corner of Gulf early next week.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:46 AM
 
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Another miss for my area and dud. Bank on it. Upper levels are all wrong and until they change there will be nothing to talk about.
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