2020 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (clouds, cancel, tornado, days)

[Psychoma]

Mon evening: And TD18 becomes TS Rene just off NW Africa over the Cape Verde islands. There is no "Q" name on the list so went from "P" to "R" name next.

[Psychoma]

The area about 200miles SW of Bermuda now up to 40% chance formation as slowly heads towards the Carolina coast this week. For now a rain maker but will be nearing warm waters of Gulf Stream when closer to the coast that could give it a boost.

[Psychoma]

Tue 8Sept evening:
Atlantic:
-94L slowly approaching Carolina's 40% chance formation but overall still looks to be a scattered showers rain maker and keeps on moving. Not much to it at the moment.
-Area about to come off Africa 80% chance formation, several models develop it but they're all over the place on where eventually goes this far out in time.
-The 'Wave Train' looks to continue thereafter. Not surprising as we near average peak of Hurricane season.

[floridarebel]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

They have all been duds at best. Upper levels are wrong this year and too much dry air aloft. Looks like another dead year for my part of FL unless something boils up west of Cuba and moves northeast.

17 named storms, only 5 have turned into hurricanes and a total of 1 of those have turned into majors. If we were looking at 17/10/6, that'd be different but we've had a bunch of small forgettable tropical depressions that probably never should have been named.

It used to be FL got hit by hurricanes in October that formed in the west Caribbean and moved north to Florida from the trough but that doesn't happen anymore, not since Wilma.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

17 named storms, only 5 have turned into hurricanes and a total of 1 of those have turned into majors. If we were looking at 17/10/6, that'd be different but we've had a bunch of small forgettable tropical depressions that probably never should have been named.

It used to be FL got hit by hurricanes in October that formed in the west Caribbean and moved north to Florida from the trough but that doesn't happen anymore, not since Wilma.

It will again and this time Tampa's number is coming up for a super CAT5 with gust 230mph. Not gonna get lucky another 99 years.

[Psychoma]

Wed 9Sept evening:
Atlantic:
-Area emerging off Africa 90% chance formation.
-Area behind it 20%.
-94L just SE of NC/SC border bringing some scattered rain chances.
-Area just to 94L's SSE (I think this was part of 94L sheared off?) 20% chance formation as moves into the Gulf of Mexico, not a lot of model support for development but in September we watch everything.

E Pac:
Area well off Mexico SW coast 40% chance formation as heads WNW/NW, area well of W coast 20% chance as heads West.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 10Sept AM:
-NHC added another area to watch in the Gulf, 20% chance formation as heads West/SW.
-94L off NC not expected to develop (no surprise), will just add a few scattered shower chances near the coast.
-For other areas see post above.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 10Sept evening:

Atlantic:
-94L along NC no longer a concern.
-95L coming off Africa 90% chance formation.
-Area to emerge off Africa just N of there 40% chance.
-Area near Bahamas 50% chance as heads into N Central Gulf.
-Area in Gulf 20% chance as heads W/SW.

[Psychoma]

Fri 11Sept 2pEDT/1pCDT:
Atlantic:
-96L is the blob near S FL & Bahamas region, looking much better all day, now high chance formation this evening or this weekend as heads into the Gulf, showers/breezy for S FL.
-Area in central Gulf now low 30% chance as heads down towards Mexico.
-95L emerged off Africa high 90% chance as heads West
-Area just emerging off Africa 40% chance as heads more W/NW behind Rene.

E Pac:
Area well off SW Mexico now 80% chance formation as heads out to sea.

[Psychoma]

Fri 415pEDT/315pCDT:
NHC will begin advisories on 96L near S FL at 5pEDT. Likely will be declared PTC so that cone map and Watch/Warnings may be issued.