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Old 09-11-2020, 03:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Fri 11Sept 2pEDT/1pCDT:
Atlantic:
-96L is the blob near S FL & Bahamas region, looking much better all day, now high chance formation this evening or this weekend as heads into the Gulf, showers/breezy for S FL.
-Area in central Gulf now low 30% chance as heads down towards Mexico.
-95L emerged off Africa high 90% chance as heads West
-Area just emerging off Africa 40% chance as heads more W/NW behind Rene.

E Pac:
Area well off SW Mexico now 80% chance formation as heads out to sea.
They always build once they move away from FL. Can't buy a tropical system.
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Old 09-11-2020, 05:57 PM
 
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Fri 11Sept 5pEDT/4pCDT TD19 (Formally 96L):
Winds 35mph(55km/h)
Moving WNW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 1009mb
A small spin developed in 96L earlier today and is evident on Miami radar, clouds have improved as well. TS Watch issued for Jupiter Inlet to N of Ocean Reef. The storm is only 4mph away from being classified as a TS and named and it's possible this happens before crossing FL tonight. Up to a few inches of rain and breezy for S FL is all though. Can't rule out a small brief tornado spin up here or there. Then it enters the Gulf while sending up showers into parts of Western FL. NHC forecast currently has a 70mph TS coming near LA/MS general region Monday/Tuesday, subject to change.
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Old 09-11-2020, 06:57 PM
 
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As Levi points out in below tweet, having radar this close we can see the low level (LLC) spin (not much convection/storm with it, located E of Miami between Miami and the main convection rain blob) and the mid-level (MLC) spin (the main convection spinning). Think of these like a double layer chocolate cake...bottom portion LLC, top section MLC. Storms prefer to be more aligned so no rapid intensification expected before moving over S FL tonight.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...68752529440768
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Old 09-12-2020, 06:55 AM
 
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Sat 12Sept 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT:
Atlantic:
-TD19 see next post.
-95L about 1/3 across the Atlantic now, looking better but may be elongated West to East but likely not long until TD. High 90% chance formation.
-Area just off Africa 60% chance but likely following in Rene's footsteps out to sea.
-Area in central Gulf low 30% chance formation as heads down to Mexico.

E Pac: Both well West of Mexico out to sea.
-91E 20% chance formation.
-92E 80%.
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Old 09-12-2020, 07:06 AM
 
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TD19:
Sat 12Sept 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT:
Winds 35mph(55km/h)
Moving W 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 1004mb
About to emerge off S FL into the Gulf.
Storm likely lopsided for awhile with most convection on the East to maybe North side.
The slow journey over the Gulf will mean prolonged Surge and rain effects on it's approach towards Central Gulf coast region. Hurricane status near landfall is possible.

Watches:
-East FL coast Watches canceled.
-TS Watch for Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton Co. line.
-TS and even Hurricane Watch may be extended/issued later today or Sunday.
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Old 09-12-2020, 08:31 AM
 
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Sat 930aEDT: Up to 3” per hour rain rates are possible Keys and extreme S FL:
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1304748174704177152
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Old 09-12-2020, 12:59 PM
 
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TD19 becomes Tropical Storm Sally along Southwest FL coast.
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Old 09-12-2020, 07:05 PM
 
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Sat 12Sept 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-95L becomes TD20, about 1/3 to halfway across the Atlantic (Africa to Caribbean). Expected to eventually turn north before the Caribbean. Small chance it keeps West but most likely turns in a few days as strengthens to a hurricane.
-Area near Cape Verde islands 60% chance formation, out to sea.
-Area in W Gulf heading to Mexico low 20%.

E Pac: Area well S of Baja, 92E, 90% chance, out to sea.
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Old 09-12-2020, 10:02 PM
 
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Sat 11pEDT - 92E in E Pacific well S of Baja becomes TD16E, heading out to sea.
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Old 09-13-2020, 10:02 AM
 
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Sun 13Sept morning:
Atlantic:
-Area in SW Gulf 20% chance formation, heads S to Mexico.
-Area near Cape Verde Islands, Invest "97L" 70% chance, North out to sea.
-Area to emerge off Africa this week 20%.

E Pac: TD16E became TS Karina.
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