2020 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (march, storms, sun, moving)

[Psychoma]

Wed evening 30Sept:
Atlantic:
-Paulette remnants still spinning in the NE Atlantic well SSW of The Azores.
-NW Caribbean system 70% chance formation, models mainly have blob/Depression or so this weekend. Main story for now is the 10-20+inch rain chances W Cuba - Yucatan Peninsula region when hits the stalled frontal boundary there. Some moisture likely to be pulled up across portions of S/Central FL as well.
-New area approaching Caribbean 20% chance once in Central/W Caribbean, this may or may not form but looks to enter the Gulf as the frontal boundary breaks down about same time.

E Pac:Area behind Marie 40% chance formation.

[Psychoma]

Thurs evening 1-Oct:
Atlantic:
-NW Caribbean blob now 'invest 91L' (no change, just designation for easier tracking/communication purposes), 80% chance formation.
-E Caribbean blob 30% chance.

E Pac: Area behind Marie 30%.

[Psychoma]

Fri morning 2-Oct: Invest 91L in NW Caribbean organizes just enough to become TD25. NHC will begin advisories at 11aEDT/10aCDT.

[LKJ1988]

That will get pushed to the west and south so another FL miss.

[Psychoma]

Fri evening 2-Oct:
Atlantic:
-TD25 becomes TS Gamma
-Area S of Puerto Rico 40% formation chance.

E Pac:
-Area well SW of Mexico 20%
-Area S of Mexico/Guatemala 20%

[Psychoma]

Sat morning 3-Oct:
Atlantic:
-Area S of Hispaniola 50% chance, may enter central/Eastern Gulf.
-Area between NW Africa & Caribbean 20% chance, likely turns N out to sea.
-Area Central Atlantic 10% chance....this may be Paulette's remnants once again...

E Pac: 2 areas SW of Mexico 20% chance.

[Psychoma]

Sun 4pCDT,5pEDT/AST:
Atlantic:
-Invest 92L in Caribbean becomes PTC26 (Potential Tropical Cyclone 26). Winds 35mph(55km), just S of Jamaica. It has the winds for Tropical Depression but not quite the organization so PTC designation allows cone maps and extra info to be issued to get the word out.

PTC26 expected to break into the Gulf of Mexico and NHC has a Cat2 coming into the central US Gulf coast at the end of the week.
Cone map via NHC tweet: https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...69238609149959


-Ex-Paulette remnants 10% chance formation in central Atlantic.
-Area between Caribbean & Africa down to 0%, out to sea.

E Pac:
-Area well SW of Mexico 60% chance.
-Area S of Mexico/Guatemala 10%.

[LKJ1988]

Another FL miss. Just unreal the same lucky areas get hit after hit.

[TwinbrookNine]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

There's been lots of named storms but few hurricanes or major hurricanes. Quantity over quality so far this year.

Comparisons they are making = apples and oranges.


They now name everything - even porpoise farts I guess. Every cyclonic disturbance in the Atlantic now gets named, sometimes admittedly "only semi- tropical." [they don't have strict uniform criteria to classify these little disturbances, just depends who is working the Atlantic that particular day]



Winds (used to grade disturbances), even after landfall, are winds around 10,000 feet above sea level; derived from images analyzed by computers using high def satellite photos to assign "wind speed" using 10.000 ft amsl as a "focus."


3 recent "hurricanes" that I've watched making landfall did NOT have sustained winds anywhere near 75 mph at or near sea level. Liars.



By my count we should be at letter H or I. Not gamma.


Pretty good year compared to recent years, though.

[Psychoma]

-Sub-Tropical systems do meet certain criteria, but they are more of a hybrid tropical and extratropical systems so borderline systems may or may not be named and could go either way of classified or not sometimes, other times text book examples. Many classified as Sub-Tropical make the full transition to Tropical. They've only been named since 2002.

-Storm winds given are always ground speed. Winds are much faster the higher up you go into atmosphere and even just a few stories up which can be measured through a variety of methods. Many times wind speeds over land go unmeasured due to lack of sensors, often many miles apart, leaving tons of data missed or communication is lost and it may be days or weeks before data is retrieved. Friction of the wind over different surface obstacles (buildings, trees, etc.) versus more open terrain can lead to different wind speeds as well.