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Old 05-16-2020, 02:54 PM
 
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And Tropical Depression One has formed.
https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...61568615907328
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Old 05-16-2020, 08:56 PM
 
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TD1 becomes Tropical Storm Arthur.
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:46 AM
 
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No current storms, but watching central America region on E Pacific and Caribbean / Gulf side towards end of May/early June as a CAG (Central American Gyre) is expected to form which has tendency to spin up storms either side into Gulf, Caribbean or E Pacific, too early to know more than that. Also hint of something maybe near where Arthur formed as we start June, but remains to be seen if anything happens.

Seasonal outlook summary:
NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook is out, they revise as needed typically in August (busiest time frame is typ Aug-Oct, mid Sept peak), early season storms have no impact or foreshadowing to what may come later this season, and as mentioned several post back even though everyone seems to focus on the outlook numbers - it only takes one storm to change your life, outlooks do not yet provide risk of landfall during the year (We don't possess the science yet and hurricanes are driven by the weather patterns around them) & the outlooks provide more larger scale reasoning as to the "why" behind the numbers which to me is more important.

Atlantic:
13-19 named, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 Cat3+
(normal: 12 named, 6 hurricanes, 3 Cat3+)
60% above average, 30% normal, 10% chance below normal season
Reason: El Nino likely Neutral or towards La Nina phase (El Nino in Pacific increases wind shear in the Atlantic which hurts storms, so weaker or non-El Nino year means likely less wind shear), less overall wind shear, above average water temps, weaker trade winds, increased African monsoon.

E Pacific:
11-18 named, 5-10 hurricanes, 1-5 Cat3+
(normal: 15 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 Cat3+
25% above normal, 40% normal, 35% chance below normal
Reason: average/below avg water temps, weak El Nino to La Nina shift.

Central Pacific (Hawaii):
2-6 named
(normal: 4-5 named)
Reason: same as E Pacific.
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:10 AM
 
Location: On the Edge of the Fringe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
First main seasonal prediction for the season in from Colorado State:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...27691485167618
THANK YOU !!!!

I saw this on the news, my thought, is, will VEGAS take a bet on the over/under ? As in, can I go to a bookie at a casino, and bet the OVER on the number of severe storms that make landfall?


I joke about hurricanes, only because I live in Florida and have been through several, including some bad ones. My house is built supposedly to CAT 5 standards. I find them more inconvenient than anything.

Of course, there is the entertainment factor. People running around like ants when one steps on the mound.....I have one friend who goes into a full blown panic when he hears of a potential hurricane...to the point that he is convinced that any and all hurricanes will turn and head RIGHT to HIM!
I have family members in other states who call and Email me PANICKED when a hurricane is headed to Florida Warning me to go sleep in a flimsy motel instead..........Always good for a laugh

BUT as I have an attitiude of such, should something happen, well, so be it.....
As the fearless general said in Gladiator

"If you find yourself alone, riding in green fields with the sun on your face, do not be troubled; for you are in Elysium, and you're already dead! "
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Old 05-25-2020, 03:23 PM
 
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“What we do in life, echos in eternity”

There’s a small outside chance a Low forms along the trough moving over Florida. Maybe between Cape Canaveral & the Carolinas Tue/Wed. Maybe an invest or Depression out of it type thing. Nothing to change plans on and again low chance, but will be scattered rains near the coast regardless. Just figure I’d mention since it’s currently quiet out there. Waiting for June 1 -ish time frame to watch near Central America.

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-25-2020 at 04:02 PM..
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Old 05-25-2020, 04:15 PM
 
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NHC giving that low a 20% chance of formation. Scattered heavy rain maker up into the Carolinas next few days regardless. May see increase in rip currents.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:11 PM
 
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Tue 26May:
E Pacific:
Scattered showers just South of Mexico, Guatemala region at high 70% chance formation towards this weekend. Looks to slowly drift North whatever becomes of it. More details known as we get closer.

Atlantic:
Disorganized showers along SE US coast is "invest 91L". NHC has low 30% chance formation between now and late Wednesday. Various 'spins' with it, if one stays further out over water then maybe a very brief chance can eek out Depression status. But all in all...the Low's of invest 91L come in between GA and NC coast, bringing heavy scattered tropical rains somewhere from coast to the Appalachian mountains, there's a low chance of a few tornadoes right along the Carolina coastal regions as it does. Euro tends to go more West bringing rains up into Upstate SC general region more and GFS goes more up NC into central VA route. So GA to VA rains somewhere. Overall keeps on moving up and out.

Elsewhere: Watching early June-ish time frame towards Central America, W Caribbean, S Gulf of Mexico, E Pacific regions.
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:55 AM
 
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Wed 27May 645aEDT: dominant Low on invest 91L, just off Charleston, SC quickly organizing this AM, very small area on radar showing Tropical Storm winds higher up but not sure those winds reaching surface yet though. Only has a a short time before onshore though. (Storms are rated/classified by surface level winds).
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:12 AM
 
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Added Details/radar:
https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...96009738129408
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:30 AM
 
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730aEDT: per NHC 91L near Charleston, SC will be upgraded to Tropical Storm if continues to intensify here just before landfall.
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