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Old 05-27-2020, 06:08 AM
 
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91L becomes Tropical Storm Bertha, see that thread for details.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:41 PM
 
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Oh goodie, 2020 strikes again:
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...52473019822080
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Old 05-29-2020, 07:08 AM
 
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Fri 29May 9aEDT/AST, 10aADT:
The blob of scattered showers well ESE of Bermuda (invest "92L") has thru Saturday or so to try and develop Sub-Tropical characteristics. But colder waters just ahead and approaching front will weaken & absorb it start of next week likely. Bermuda may or may not get some scattered showers out of it but bulk should stay East. Remnants likely move off towards Nova Scotia - Newfoundland region.

All eyes turn towards the Gulf of Mexico, W Caribbean, & E Pacific next week.

https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...55445394014209
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Old 05-29-2020, 09:21 PM
 
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Fri 29May evening:
E Pacific: Invest 91e just S of Mexico / Guatemala, drifting generally North. A CAG (Central American Gyre) is setting up over Central America and will dump up to a few feet of rain some locations. CAG's can also produce tropical systems in E Pacific, Gulf of Mexico or W Caribbean.

Model guidance suggest this may occur near Bay of Campeche (Southern/SW Gulf of Mexico) early to mid next week. If forms, would generally head North or Northeast, US Gulf states need to be monitoring.

More info found here, click to open thread, evening EURO model in 3rd post:
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...69310316769281
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:26 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
...Model guidance suggest this may occur near Bay of Campeche (Southern/SW Gulf of Mexico) early to mid next week. If forms, would generally head North or Northeast, US Gulf states need to be monitoring.

Correction: that should read if we get a storm in the Gulf next week it could head any direction. So all of the Gulf US states and Mexico should be monitoring this.
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Old 05-30-2020, 02:56 PM
 
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Sat 30May 5pEDT: Invest 91e organizes enough to become Tropical Depression 2e just S of Guatemala, moves onshore Sunday, heavy scattered rainfall, flooding and landslide threat high.
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Old 05-30-2020, 06:29 PM
 
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Sat 30May 8pEDT:
-Invest 92L East of Bermuda low 20% chance development & falling.
-NHC now watching Potential Gulf Storm officially with 20% chance formation but likely to grow as model guidance is increasing. Here’s a good graphic to describe what we know now:
https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...76485647732736
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Old 05-31-2020, 06:51 AM
 
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Sun 31May 8aEDT/7aCDT:
E Pac: TD2e was able to eek out Tropical Storm Amanda name just before landfall into Guatemala.

Atlantic: possible Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) system up to 50% chance formation this week.
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Old 05-31-2020, 01:32 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Sat 30May 8pEDT:
-Invest 92L East of Bermuda low 20% chance development & falling.
-NHC now watching Potential Gulf Storm officially with 20% chance formation but likely to grow as model guidance is increasing. Here’s a good graphic to describe what we know now:
https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...76485647732736
Bet my life it goes toward TX or the north gulf coast and missing my area. Would love to see a stuck TS in the northeast gulf so i could get 10" + of rain.
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Old 05-31-2020, 09:19 PM
 
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Sunday evening 31May:
Invest "93L" given to area being monitored in Bay of Campeche (really part of what was Tropical Storm Amanda, now low level circulation has dissipated so any storm that forms will get a new name). NHC has 60% chance of formation this week. Model guidance suggest US Gulf coast states and Mexico should keep an eye on it. Guidance suggest potential impacts, should it form, could occur starting late this week to early next week time frame. There's also still a decent chance the storm stays South and heads back down into Mexico / East Pacific waters due to the overall CAG circulation influence over the region. Too soon to call. Here is the evening EURO ensembles (the models that make up the main EURO model), GFS is basically similar:
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...94551158534145

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-31-2020 at 09:32 PM..
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