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Old 05-16-2020, 09:12 PM
 
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Saturday 16May 11pEDT: Invest 90L -> Tropical Depression One ->now becomes Tropical Storm Arthur.

Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NNE 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1006mb. Located about 190miles ENE of Cape Canaveral, FL & about 420miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Storms position will allow it to feed off Gulf Stream current some here and there. Still in a pocket of low Wind shear. Storm track as nears Outer Banks of NC will largely depend on what the current weather across the Mid-West & Gulf regions does in pulling it closer to shore or helping it just pass by out to sea. So uncertainty in track remains.

Either way, US impacts mostly with rip currents, rougher surf and some coastal rains. Closer to shore could allow Tropical Storm winds into portions of NC (wind/tree problems start around 40mph). Over wash on Hwy 12 and limited ferry access likely coming up as is typical.

Official storm storm stats update through US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 3 hours at 2,5,8 & 11am/pm EDT here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Satellite imagery:
Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

GOESeast Southeast:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...sat=G16§or=se

GOESeast Atlantic coast:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...at=G16§or=eus

GOESeast Mid-Atlantic/NE:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...sat=G16§or=ne

GOESeast US:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus.php?sat=G16
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:57 AM
 
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Sun 17May 5aEDT: estimated winds 40mph, moving NNE 9mph, pressure 1006mb. Tropical Storm Watch changed to Warning (means TS winds(39+mph) expected somewhere in warning area within 36hrs or less, in this case likely Monday). Around 40mph is typically when you start to see some scattered trees downed and power issues begin. Rain 1-3inches poss East NC, a few areas could be higher but depends on shape of storm and final track. Complex steering pattern. Only slow intensification expected.
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:41 PM
 
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Sun 17May 5pEDT: Winds 45mph, moving NNE 9mph, pressure 1002mb. Rain bands making their way into the Carolina coast. Rip current threat will be high across Southeast US beaches (even if nice and sunny), rougher surf. Center expected to pass near or just East of NC coast Monday, rain near coastal regions. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 125miles from the center, mainly on the East side and somewhat on the North and South side.
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:54 PM
 
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https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...23495292465153
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Old 05-17-2020, 07:25 PM
 
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Tornadoes will also be possible as rain bands move in. Tornadoes in tropical systems are typically on weaker side, quick to pop up and usually short lived.
https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/...91837260869632
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Old 05-17-2020, 09:05 PM
 
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Sun 17May 11pEDT: Arthur not as healthy looking as earlier, area of Tropical Storm Force winds has also shrunken down. Aircraft recon finds enough evidence to keep winds at 45mph.
https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...16803591299074
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Old 05-18-2020, 04:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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1st Tropical System is a miss. Was looking like a rainy week this week here but now will stay dry north of Delaware..
Bermuda may get affects "from the north" with this one.

This shows the forecast track and cone changes past 2 days. NHC had it coming up as far as 38N. Euro started saying NO 3 days ago. GFS continued to say YES until it caved to the Euro. #KingEuro

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Old 05-18-2020, 06:09 AM
 
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Monday 18May 8aEDT: Winds 45mph, moving NNE 15mph, pressure 1001mb. Heavy rains across portions of E NC and some more scattered into VA. Center about 50miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Obs:
-Buoy about 20miles SSE of Cape Hatteras reported wind gust of 43mph (note buoys are hit/miss with measurements as they typ only record every so many minutes and when they do may be in or between sets of waves that may affect/block winds in an area)
-Diamond Shoals Lighthouse sustained just over 30mph, gust to near 45mph.
-Many places reporting winds in the 20mph's, gusting 30's. Not surprising given lop-sided disorganized storm.
-minor/low number of power outages reported.
-5.44inch rain near Emerald Isle
-2.6 to 3.94in Morehead City area.
-3.47in near Camp Lejeune
-1.25 to 1.50 New Bern area.
-2.32in Rodanthe
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:17 AM
 
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https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...71034549846016
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:07 AM
 
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Monday 18May 11aEDT: Winds 50mph, moving NNE 16mph, pressure 996mb. Hurricane Hunters picking up higher winds East of the center well offshore. Storm is pulling away from land after passing about 20 miles SE of Cape Hatteras. Scattered rains for eastern NC and VA. Storm expected to loose tropical characteristics this week before eventually approaching Bermuda as it falls apart. May dissipate before nearing the island.
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