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Old 05-27-2020, 06:12 AM
 
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Wednesday 27May 8aEDT: Invest 91L QUICKLY organized near sunrise to become Tropical Storm Bertha.

Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving NW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 1009mb. Located about 30miles ESE of Charleston, SC. Makes landfall in a few hours, where will weaken to depression or just a low classification later today. Tropical Storm Warning (Winds 39+mph expected somewhere in warning area) Edisto Beach to South Santee River SC.

Regardless of name/classification, the main threat today has always been the heavy rain potential for SC and NC, some rough surf / rip currents. As you get closer to the Appalachian mountains, some locations have already had a foot of rain in recent days, increasing flood risk if showers head that way. Per WPC, rain rates in Eastern SC and S NC of 2" per hour may occur. Rain totals of 2-4" expected, isolated 8" possible. Flooding is possible. Fortunately the system keeps moving. A few isolated brief weak tornadoes are possible closer to the SC/NC coast as rain bands come in, likely near and well North/Northeast of the center (typical in land-falling tropical cyclones).

Official updates can be found with the NHC here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 05-27-2020, 06:22 AM
 
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https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...091261442?s=21

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-27-2020 at 06:40 AM..
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Old 05-27-2020, 06:40 AM
 
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https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...21569025404928
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:01 AM
 
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Radar of evolution of Bertha This morning:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1265628375332184071
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:02 AM
 
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And additional developmental aide insights:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...25451856265217
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:47 AM
 
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And landfall around 930a Wednesday 27May between Charleston and Bulls Bay, winds estimated near 50mph but will quickly fall, rain biggest concern.
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Old 05-27-2020, 11:34 AM
 
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Next area to watch for potential flooding with 2”/hr rain rates possible next few hours:
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1265697334861520897
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:07 PM
 
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Your evening tornadoes are more then likely going to be found in this area shown below, in the small rain bands still coming in feeding what remains of Bertha moisture. These would likely be very short lived weaker variety.
https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1265780141331865600
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:26 PM
 
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Wednesday 27May 9pEDT: Bertha just a rain maker, dry southern half of storm but a few thin rain bands still pulling all the way up from the Carolina coast (where low tornado threat still exist in those, see post above). The main storm rain shield now running into the Appalachian mountains of VA, and portions of NC still. This evening will bring potential for flooding as Appalachian mountain chain has already received soaking rains over the past few weeks, so even just a few inches tonight may cause flooding in several areas, at night. This may lead to dangerous conditions overnight. Mountains help ring out additional moisture as it tries to start lifting up over the mountains.

Reminder, inland flooding is the 2nd leading cause of death in US tropical systems (storm surge at the coast is no.1). Most US flood deaths are vehicle related...don't drive around barricades (it's typical in wide spread flooding events to see unmanned barricades due to large number of flooded roadways taking officials time/personnel), don't drive into flooded roads even if no barricade (again officials busy and can't block/monitor every road)...you don't know if road still there or how deep the water is.

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1265798906262085633
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Old 05-28-2020, 02:41 AM
 
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Thurs 28May 5aEDT: Bertha has lost tropical characteristics, now considered post-tropical, just a spinning Low with some showers, which are now heading into Canada, FAST moving storm!
https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...25139499188224
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