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Old 07-09-2020, 03:47 PM
 
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Thursday 9July 5pEDT: Invest 98L formed a new center under the more intense convection and subsequently organized enough to become Tropical Storm Fay just off of Cape Hatteras, NC, confirmed by in storm US Air Force Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft. The average 6th named storm formation date in the Atlantic is September 8.

NHC will begin advisories at 5pm.
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Old 07-09-2020, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Old 07-09-2020, 04:46 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Warnings up for this area. Just because they named it. What a joke. It's just a typical weak coastal storm



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Old 07-09-2020, 05:31 PM
 
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Here's the main focus: heavy rains where ever that main comma shaped rain shield travels to where 3-5inches could fall in a short time:

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1281343223970107392
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Old 07-09-2020, 05:59 PM
 
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Thurs 9July 5pEDT:
Winds 45mph(75km/h)
Moving North 7mph(11km/h)
Pressure 1005mb

Has thru Friday to slowly strengthen(NHC going with 50mph max Friday), then proximity to land and cooler waters should begin to weaken storm, more so once over land. Main focus is the potential for heavy rain where main rain shield travels, which is currently just the North and East side of storm, aside from sparse scattered showers elsewhere at the moment. NHC going with 3-5inches of rain with that main blob of moisture, but isolated amounts of 8in possible. Gusty winds will mainly be nuisance / water craft issues, but where ever winds of just 40mph or higher occur then that's typically when you see scattered power outages and trees downed start to begin so be prepared for that potential (ie: Tropical Storm Warned areas). Winds are mainly concentrated with the main shower activity on the N and E side of storm at the moment and pretty calm elsewhere. TS winds (39+mph) extend out up to 140miles(220km) from storm center.

Tropical Storm Warning (Winds of 39mph or greater expected somewhere within the region) from Cape May, NJ north to Watch Hill, RI, including Long Island.

There are currently no Storm Surge Watch/Warnings (3ft of surge is the minimum for those to be issued, so this tells us less then 3ft possible).

Once inland into New England, expected to move faster and be in Canada by later Saturday / early Sunday.

All official updates are released every 3 hours at 2, 5, 8 & 11a/pEDT from the US National Hurricane Center here, just below the main map on that page (Tip: 'Public Advisory' gives latest storm stats, Tropical Watch/Warnings, storm impact info, etc.; 'Forecast Discussion' gives brief reasoning behind current storm structure and predictions on strength and path; graphics below that for pictorial info/maps): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Some additional resources:
-NE US regional Satellite GOESeast: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...=G16&sector=ne
-Tropical Tidbits Satellite imagery: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/...06L&product=ir
-NY, NE NJ, S CT region: https://www.weather.gov/okx/tropical
-SE PA, NE MD, NJ, DE region: https://www.weather.gov/phi/tropical
-Power Outage map: https://poweroutage.us/
-WindAlert live/history wind speeds interactive map: https://www.windalert.com/search/38.931/-74.261/6
-River level gauges: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/
-Tidal gauge map: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html
-Buoy data: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
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Old 07-09-2020, 07:44 PM
 
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Never gonna do much and another miss for FL.
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Old 07-09-2020, 07:47 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
and another miss for FL.
How is something a miss if it is nowhere near you and never was forecast to be near you? So annoying
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Old 07-09-2020, 08:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Loop last 4hrs.
T = Tropical Storm Fay. That's the NHC track


You can see the rotating convection in NC


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Old 07-09-2020, 09:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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NJ and NYC landfall

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Old 07-10-2020, 05:40 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here it comes. Fay. Cape May NJ only reporting wind gusts to 24mph. Temp of 74 dewpoint of 73 and moderate rain. So no big winds with this but will feel like a Tropical system

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