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Old 07-22-2020, 08:24 AM
 
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Wednesday 22July Tropical Storm Gonzalo forms (formally TD7) about 1,250miles(2,010km) East of Windward Islands. The earliest 7th named storm in Atlantic...beating 2005 by 2 days, average 7th formation date is September 16.

Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1003mb.

There are several factors involved with this storm on what happens to it next few days (size, intensity, wind shear, dry air, etc) best to see Levi’s video from last night on it for in depth (same vid posted in Hurricane thread yesterday): https://youtu.be/42v3RvN0rbg

Keep in mind tiny storms like this are highly subject to sudden swings in intensity up or down. It’s small size will also help it fight off dry air intrusion to some degree. Model guidance does suggest storm will fall apart in the Caribbean Sea...but 2020 so we’ll see what happens. Residents/visitors of the Lesser Antilles should monitor storm. Tropical Storm Watches (or Hurricane Watches depending what it does next...current forecast is for 65mph max winds but small systems make intensity forecasts very challenging) may be issued for parts of the islands sometime Thursday for direct impacts this weekend.

Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST here (and will add additional updates at 2 & 8a/p once Watches/Warnings posted per protocol): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...23220730908672
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:50 AM
 
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Some additional in depth analysis of Gonzalo this morning:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285929952324603904
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/...987539968?s=19
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:29 AM
 
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Wednesday 22July 11aEDT/AST:
Winds 50mph(85km/h)
Moving W 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
TS winds only go out up to 25miles(35km) from center.
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:48 PM
 
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Hhmmmm...maybe going for the Hurricane option:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285991760179716099
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:20 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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He gone be the next 200 mph category 5 hurricane that slams into Tampa area and sends a 20 foot storm surge, ending their 99 year streak.
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:55 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
He gone be the next 200 mph category 5 hurricane that slams into Tampa area and sends a 20 foot storm surge, ending their 99 year streak.
Not a chance lance. Upper levels down the road won't be kind to this system. So you can forget this one.

Tampa's number is coming when a super cat5 will come up the pipe from the southwest and make landfall north of Tampa bay. More like a 32ft surge. July and the are this system is in is a bad time and area to expect anything to happen with these systems. Upper levels and dry air aloft just kill em up time after time.
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:42 PM
 
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Wednesday 22July 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving W 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 998mb
Hurricane Watch for Barbados. TS winds only go out up to 35miles(55km) from center.
Come map: https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...36377067765760

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-22-2020 at 10:10 PM..
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Old 07-23-2020, 06:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/Praedictix/status/1286234957220917251/photo/1
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:08 AM
 
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Thurs 23July 8aEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving W 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Dry air sucked in and circulating around to West side cutting convection away, storm still holding its own with tiny core, slowly strengthening despite this, Hurricane today/tomorrow. Hurricane Watch added to St. Vincent & Grenadines. Rain in Windward Islands of 2-5”, isolated 7”, 1-2” Trinidad & Tobago.
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