Atlantic - Isaias forms July 29, 2020 (hot, raining, temps, beach)

[Cambium]

"Max" wind gust forecast. Not sustained.

Should be some good 30mph+ gusts for DE, NJ, Southern NY/CT.

They have NYC area max at 50-60mph. I guess the max could be possible.



Precip total forecast until Wednesday 8am. Large swath of 3-6"



Source:

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by kab0906

Yes, you keep saying that. How about adding to the conversation instead?

I have typed out all there is to type out. It was a dud from day one as i told ya guys days ago it had no chance as the upper levels were not in favor of this system. Nothing in that part of the world has a chance until the upper level pattern changes. Way too much dry air and shear. Changes come out past Aug 10th. Not even the east coast of FL would know there is anything offshore. Anythime the heavy rain is pushed well northeast of the center it is done unless the upper levels allow good exhaust and outflow.

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by Cambium

They have NYC area max at 50-60mph. I guess the max could be possible.

I'd say the super quick movement Wednesday could allow that...won't have much time to weaken after VA perhaps. Depends what final shape of storm we get too.

[Psychoma]

I've posted model map of possible winds for SC, NC and most of VA here. So if you are in anywhere in central to eastern SC, NC or VA you need to finish preparing for scattered power outages and downed trees, typical in winds of just 40mph or higher.
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...03679509004288

[Cambium]

Watches are up


https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/sta...37505337614336



and.......... Earlier this year, Tropical Storm Fay tracked just 15 miles NW of New York City.
This week Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to track about 15 miles SE of NYC.

https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1290022069816655872/photo/1

[Psychoma]

Sun 2Aug 8pEDT/AST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving NNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 993mb

At 5p NHC updated Watch/Warnings:
-Storm Surge Warning Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC (2 to 4ft rise)
-Storm Surge Watch Cape Fear, NC to Duck, NC including Pamlico & Albemarle Sounds
-Hurricane Watch South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
-TS Warning extended N to Ocracoke Inlet, NC
-TS Watch extended N to Watch Hill, RI, includes Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island & Long Island Sound.
-TS Warning S of Sebastian Inlet, FL canceled.

Surge Watch/Warning is for 3ft or more rise in water possible
Hurricane Watch/Warning for winds 74mph or higher
TS Watch/Warning for winds between 39-73mph

Recent wind obs:
-Buoy off Cape Canaveral 45mph, gust 54mph
-Sebastien Inlet 39mph, gust 48mph

[Psychoma]

Finally stayed looking more like a tropical system today. Continues to pulse new storms while being sheared. Outflow looks to be improving. Overall storm steady state, with very slow improvements to structure. May be able to get a Hurricane into SC/NC.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Finally stayed looking more like a tropical system today. Continues to pulse new storms while being sheared. Outflow looks to be improving. Overall storm steady state, with very slow improvements to structure. May be able to get a Hurricane into SC/NC.

Yeah, Isaias looking its healthiest in the last 24hrs. This explosive convection in Isaias has been ongoing since early this morning and continues. Although vertical shear is combatting the system, the warm Gulf Stream waters could help push Isaias back to a low-end Cat 1 hurricane.

[twingles]

Another beautiful day here on the N.C. coast. Lots of waves. Lots of surfers. Heading back to Raleigh tomorrow.

[Psychoma]

Probably my last update of the evening. Air recon and satellite show little change from earlier. Steady storm. Air recon does show some of the stronger winds have wrapped to the North side and not just E or NE.

Tropical Tidbits posted his evening video, always worth a watch if you want some in depth:
https://youtu.be/yxkLe_86-rU