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Old 07-30-2020, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Old 07-30-2020, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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If it hit Florida, would just be another day. We've had afternoon thunderstorms worse than some of the tropical storms/cat 1 hurricanes that pass by, especially when we get the west side of a storm which is weaker, compared to the east side.
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Old 07-30-2020, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/...391657475?s=19


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Old 07-30-2020, 05:50 PM
 
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It is a miss for me so i am done with this one. Just gonna dry my area out with sinking air on the west wide. I just can't buy a tropical system.
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Old 07-30-2020, 09:42 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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11pm update shifts come east slightly.

Should stay a Hurricane to NC now.

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Old 07-30-2020, 09:51 PM
 
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Thurs 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NW 18mph(30km/h), pressure 999mb.

Overall we have our center on the North side of Hispaniola as anticipated. Still a little disorganized with proximity to high mountains, some wind shear ahead of it too (storms don't like). But some slow intensification expected and possible Hurricane here somewhere near Bahamas late Friday or sometime Saturday. Battle with wind shear and proximity to FL may limit intensification but still some questions on what it'll be. Heavy rains and TS winds this evening near where storm travels. Re-curving storms can be tricky since slight wobbles / track changes at these angles can mean big differences along the coast on who see's what. FL north into Canada should be watching.

Earlier new Watch/Warning issued: (map posted above by Cambium shows these highlighted)
-Hurricane Warning NW Bahamas
-Tropical Storm Watch Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet, FL & Lake Okeechobee
Watch/Warnings are time based issued, so we will see additional Watches extended up FL coast and likely into GA on Friday, then additional Watches potentially up to the VA/NC border by sometime Saturday. Those will change to Warnings about 12hours after.
Storm Surge Watch/Warnings may be posted for US East coast as well (3ft or higher is typ when they're issued).
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:33 PM
 
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Thurs 1130pEDT/AST: Air Recon finding surface winds around 75mph...we may have an upgrade to Cat1 shortly.
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:46 PM
 
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Sure enough, NHC upgrades to Cat1 Hurricane with 80mph winds 1140pEDT/AST.
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:22 AM
 
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Fri 31July 5aEDT/AST:
Winds 80mph(130km/h), moving NW 17mph(28km/h), pressure 990mb.
Center about 15miles(25km) SSW of Great Inagua Island, 385miles(620km) SE of Nassau Bahamas
Hurricane force winds(74mph+) extend up to 45miles(75km) from center, TS 205miles(335km).
Storm Surge 3-5ft in parts of Bahamas expected.

Pressure continues drop = steadily strengthening. NHC now forecast 100mph towards Saturday followed by gradual weakening.
Adjustments to the track/intensity/timing may continue from near & including the Carolina's and Northward as we get closer in time.
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Old 07-31-2020, 07:01 AM
 
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Fri 31July 8aEDT/AST:
No changes, Storm continues to pulse new storms and trying to organize.
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