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07-31-2020, 09:08 AM
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5,240 posts, read 2,560,518 times
Reputation: 1728
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Friday 10aEDT/AST - Southwesterly wind shear eroding the West, SW & South sides of storm. Air recon finding pressure rising slightly. Winds on the NE - E still very intense. So likely paused strengthening for the morning as it battles shear.
Last edited by Psychoma; 07-31-2020 at 09:17 AM..
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07-31-2020, 10:49 AM
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Location: Near the Coast SWCT
75,023 posts, read 58,572,190 times
Reputation: 13397
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Current Satellite and latest median track from NHC.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES |
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07-31-2020, 10:56 AM
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Location: NMB, SC
9,641 posts, read 2,661,860 times
Reputation: 13020
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The ocean was starting to churn up a bit here in SC this morning.
Gas station and local supermarket was fairly busy too ...folks preparing.
Normally the ocean is very calm at 7am
Here's what it looked like this morning at 7am
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07-31-2020, 11:13 AM
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5,240 posts, read 2,560,518 times
Reputation: 1728
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The 11a track was shifted ever so slightly West a tad. On recurving storms, at these angles, every mile closer/further from shore counts.
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07-31-2020, 12:58 PM
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5,240 posts, read 2,560,518 times
Reputation: 1728
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Fri 31July 2pEDT/AST:
Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving NW now at 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 991mb
Pressure down slightly, may slowly be succeeding in fighting off wind shear & slow intensification may resume this afternoon/evening.
Depending where it goes we could have a landfalling Hurricane into FL as early as tomorrow evening or Sunday. Make sure you’re prepared! And/or then on further up the US East coast.
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07-31-2020, 01:36 PM
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Location: Near the Coast SWCT
75,023 posts, read 58,572,190 times
Reputation: 13397
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Loop past 4hrs. I was staring at that outflow boundary. Looked like it was going to get Miami but it totally faded away. Dry air or just not enough steam
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07-31-2020, 01:42 PM
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Location: NoVA/SoFLO
18,380 posts, read 25,269,313 times
Reputation: 6795
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Latest Euro shows a Florida hit, looks like into the Fort Lauderdale area. Wondering if the 5 PM update will shift west?
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07-31-2020, 02:47 PM
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Location: Near the Coast SWCT
75,023 posts, read 58,572,190 times
Reputation: 13397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764
Latest Euro shows a Florida hit, looks like into the Fort Lauderdale area. Wondering if the 5 PM update will shift west?
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Seems like the "west" shift is the new trend. If NHC shifted slightly before and now Euro shows more of it, the NHC will follow. I think what happened is the center of it reformed and formed west of previous center. So models adjusted the outcome accordingly to the upper air pattern and front, ect.
Latest 12z Operational Models for #Isaias
GFS Hits NC, then gets close to NYC
Canadian is a mess.
Navy has the most inland track
Euro decides to hit Florida and hug the east coast
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07-31-2020, 03:42 PM
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Location: Inland FL
1,623 posts, read 1,003,023 times
Reputation: 2852
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Thank gosh it's late July and not September. Isaias would definitely have turned into a major hurricane if that were the case.
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