Atlantic - Isaias forms July 29, 2020 (North, date, rain, flood)

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Poseidon3290

Thank you Psy.... have the boat all tied up and ready to go.. mostly, still needs a little attention if high winds are coming... hoping that can wait till the morning.

Not gonna get anything out of this poor lop sided system in your area.

[Cambium]

All GFS, Canadian, Navy & Euro OP models agree the storm hugs the NJ coast. Don't agree on timing yet. Agree on a ton of rain for this area. Also agree its not a strong storm.

[Cambium]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

[Psychoma]

Sat 1Aug 8aEDT/AST:
Winds 85mph(140km/h)
Moving NW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 987mb

Not the best looking storm. Still ragged on satellite. Radar shows it's trying to close off the S side of eye but keeps failing to do so and overall looks like a half eaten pizza box. So basically no intensity changes really expected. Weakening some may be likely. NHC on 5a update said dry air and wind shear: "This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time."

[LKJ1988]

It's done.

[Psychoma]

Here's an in depth blog this morning from Jack Sillin, I'd highly recommend, includes pics and drawings to help explain things for FL and rest of East coast: https://blog.weather.us/isaias-still...he-east-coast/

And I've posted the 06z morning Euro model for East coast here:
https://twitter.com/WeatherSources/s...52293831020544

[Psychoma]

Sat 1Aug 11aEDT/AST:
Winds 80mph(130km/h)
Moving NW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 987mb

TS Watch Volusia/Flagler Co line to Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Just S of Jacksonville) becomes TS Warning (time based). TS Watch for N of Ponte Vedra Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA (just North of Brunswick). NHC has storm center "near or just keeping it just offshore the E-Central FL coast."

Not looking healthy on radar or satellite. Recon still showing some Hurricane force winds though, but small area. Wonder how long it'll hold onto that at this rate. Storm continues to battle against dry air and shear.

[antinimby]

^ Yes, kill it before it gets up here.

[Cambium]

It looks like it has split in two on satellite, it's because some seriously dry air has worked it's way into the storm.

This will likely limit any further strengthening for now

[Psychoma]

Looks like Low Level Center (LLC) has decoupled. We’ll see if it refires back up over the next 12-24hours with hitting the super warm waters of the Gulf Stream current now and offshore of Andros Island. Nice spin to it still.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/statu...06214792314881