Atlantic - Isaias forms July 29, 2020 (world, map, may, NYC) - Hurricanes - - Page 9 - City-Data Forum

Cambium · 08-02-2020, 09:36 AM

Talk about Tropical. Check out the dews. Gross

Psychoma · 08-02-2020, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cambium

Talk about Tropical. Check out the dews. Gross

"Air you can wear" as they say...

Psychoma · 08-02-2020, 10:36 AM

Sun 2Aug 11aEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h) (mainly E side, rain bands will bring gusty winds)
Moving NNW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 995mb

Watch/Warning changes:
TS Warning expanded North (expected as it's time based issued, Watch 48hours or less, Warning 36hours or less until occurs) from South Santee River SC to Surf City NC, and TS Watch Surf City, NC north to Duck, NC (Just shy of VA/NC border) including the Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds.

TS Warning Lake Okeechobee and S of Jupiter Inlet, FL canceled
Storm Surge Watch for all of FL canceled, although I'd watch the St. Johns River near Jacksonville for some sort of rise which is typical in N moving storms. Criteria for Surge Watch/warning is 3ft or higher, so 1-3ft possible.

After FL:
Flood Watches being posted E SC and NC. 1-3in poss E GA; 3-5inch with isolated 7in poss E SC/NC & E to entral VA; NY - New England 2-4in with isolated 6inch. A few brief tornadoes will become more likely across E NC/SC and likely VA eventually as storm comes up in rain bands. Storm Surge 2-4ft poss Edisto Beach SC north to Cape Fear NC.

Top Obs:
-Freeport Bahamas 62mph gust
-Settlement Point (NW of Freeport) 64mph gust
-NHC reports gust have occasionally reached TS force (39mph+) between Juno Beach to Port St. Lucie.

LKJ1988 · 08-02-2020, 10:37 AM

It's done.

kab0906 · 08-02-2020, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

It's done.

Yes, you keep saying that. How about adding to the conversation instead?

Psychoma · 08-02-2020, 11:15 AM

Heavy rains Eastern Carolina’s into VA will likely lead to some flooding (not prolonged Florence though, and each storm is different, you can’t assume if fine in one storm that all storms aren’t an issue). The approaching front helping kick up and out Isaias will also squeeze out additional moisture into even near the East side of the Appalachian mountains.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...57208105525250

Cambium · 08-02-2020, 12:10 PM

Discussion from NWS for this area

Quote:

Nws ny

Quote:

potential impacts from isaias then come into play moving through
monday night, and certainly into tuesday and tuesday evening. One of
the biggest questions is how much heavier rainfall will break out
north and northeast ahead of the attendant system, and potentially
bringing parts of the area a pre type of event which corresponds to
a swath of heavy rainfall working north and northeast ahead of the
main system. Therefore a swath of heavier rainfall could arrive
sooner than currently advertised anytime essentially during monday
night as tropical moisture begins to ride north ahead of the frontal
boundary off to the west. In any event, isaias will be off the se
coast late monday and monday evening, then ride north before turning
northeast into the southern mid atlantic states by tuesday morning.
From there the system is expected to turn more to the north-
northeast later tuesday into tuesday evening.

Right now the period of the heaviest rain is slated late tuesday
morning into tuesday afternoon and evening across much of the
region. The difficult part of the forecast will be with respect to
the alignment of the axis of heaviest rainfall and how this will
align with parts of the area that have more of an urban environment
where runoff issues would be magnified. The current thinking is a
wide swath for the potential of a 2 to 6 inch rainfall across the
area, with the eventually storm track ultimately deciding where the
axis of heaviest rainfall sets up

Psychoma · 08-02-2020, 12:28 PM

Sun 2Aug 120pEDT:
Stronger winds are wrapping around the N & NW side. You can see some of this on radar just by looking at speed of rain bands in Daytona Beach region (slower) and much fast movement Port St. Lucie to Palm Bay, FL. Coastal Obs near Vero Beach showing winds right on the water upper 30mph, gusting to 50mph. Higher winds just offshore. If these pivot or expand in could see more Tropical Storm force winds right along the coast more then we've see so far.

Recon also picking up near Hurricane force well East of the center, they still have to pass thru the NE side which may be stronger.

Cambium · 08-02-2020, 12:43 PM

All Tropical Systems that have crossed through New Jersey.

35 of them. Only 2 were Cat 1 or stronger. They list Sandy as Extratropical BTW

Source:

SANDY 2012
Oct 21, 2012 to Oct 31, 2012

IRENE 2011
Aug 21, 2011 to Aug 30, 2011

HANNA 2008
Aug 28, 2008 to Sep 08, 2008

CINDY 2005
Jul 03, 2005 to Jul 11, 2005

GORDON 2000
Sep 14, 2000 to Sep 21, 2000

FLOYD 1999
Sep 07, 1999 to Sep 19, 1999

BERTHA 1996
Jul 05, 1996 to Jul 17, 1996

CHRIS 1988
Aug 21, 1988 to Aug 30, 1988

AGNES 1972
Jun 14, 1972 to Jun 23, 1972

DORIA 1971
Aug 20, 1971 to Aug 29, 1971

UNNAMED 1961
Sep 12, 1961 to Sep 15, 1961

BRENDA 1960
Jul 27, 1960 to Aug 07, 1960

DIANE 1955
Aug 07, 1955 to Aug 23, 1955

ABLE 1952
Aug 18, 1952 to Sep 03, 1952

UNNAMED 1945
Sep 12, 1945 to Sep 20, 1945

UNNAMED 1944
Jul 30, 1944 to Aug 04, 1944

UNNAMED 1939
Aug 07, 1939 to Aug 19, 1939

UNNAMED 1934
Jun 04, 1934 to Jun 21, 1934

EXTRATROPICAL
UNNAMED 1924
Sep 27, 1924 to Oct 01, 1924

UNNAMED 1915
Jul 31, 1915 to Aug 05, 1915

EXTRATROPICAL
UNNAMED 1904
Sep 08, 1904 to Sep 15, 1904

UNNAMED 1903
Sep 12, 1903 to Sep 17, 1903

UNNAMED 1899
Oct 26, 1899 to Nov 04, 1899

UNNAMED 1893
Aug 15, 1893 to Sep 02, 1893

UNNAMED 1888
Sep 06, 1888 to Sep 13, 1888

UNNAMED 1888
Aug 14, 1888 to Aug 24, 1888

UNNAMED 1886
Jun 17, 1886 to Jun 24, 1886

UNNAMED 1882
Sep 21, 1882 to Sep 24, 1882

UNNAMED 1877
Sep 21, 1877 to Oct 05, 1877

UNNAMED 1874
Sep 25, 1874 to Oct 01, 1874

UNNAMED 1872
Oct 22, 1872 to Oct 28, 1872

NOT_NAMED 1867
Aug 10, 1867 to Aug 18, 1867

UNNAMED 1866
Oct 29, 1866 to Oct 30, 1866

UNNAMED 1863
Sep 16, 1863 to Sep 19, 1863

UNNAMED 1861
Sep 27, 1861 to Sep 28, 1861

Psychoma · 08-02-2020, 01:42 PM

Sun 2Aug 2pEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving NNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 995mb
TS winds go out up to 115miles(185km) from center, mainly N & E sides.
Storm center about 45miles(75km) ESE of Vero Beach, FL
About 90miles(150km) SE of Cape Canaveral, FL