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Monday 20July Tropical Storm Douglas forms (formally TD8E) about 1,025miles(1,645km) SW of tip of Baja. The 4th named storm in E Pacific average formation date is 14July.
Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WSW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 1006mb. Tropical Storm winds go out only about 35miles(55km) from storm center.
Ocean is Douglas' playground next few days, likely hurricane fairly quickly this week, rapid intensification can't be ruled out either. But towards this weekend NHC says wind shear picks up, slightly cooler waters and drier air should start to weaken it. This will also be the time it may be approaching Hawaii, residents should keep an eye on the storm....for now heavy rain threat with possibility of wind risk too but that will depend what Douglas does next few days.
Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2&8a/p PDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Tue 21July 11aEDT/5aHST:
Center about 2,110miles(3,390km) E of Hilo, HI
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WSW 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 998mb
May become hurricane later today now.
Tue 21July 11pEDT/5pHST:
Center about 1,955miles(3,145km) E of Hilo, HI
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving W 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 998mb
A lot depends what Douglas does next few days, but NHC currently has a 60mph Tropical Storm heading onshore/near the Big Island of Hawaii as heads generally W/WNW Sunday, other islands may directly be affected as well. Tropical Watches are not issued until Tropical Storm winds are 48hours out, so maybe we'll see those sometime Friday.
Wed 22July 11aEDT/5aHST:
Center about 1,785miles(2,870km) ESE of Hilo, HI
Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving W 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 993mb
Cat1 Hurricane now (4th latest Hurricane formation date in EPAC). Has thru sometime Friday to keep strengthening, afterwards expected to slowly weaken. Approaches Hawaii somewhere near Sunday.
Wed 22July 5pEDT/11aHST:
Center about 1,690miles(2,715km) ESE of Hilo, HI
Winds 80mph(130km/h)
Moving W 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 989mb
Cat3 possible Thurs/Fri, before weakening trend begins for the weekend. An eye has formed on satellite imagery this evening. Models in a fairly tight alignment point towards high confidence of Hawaii direct impact towards Sunday. Somewhere around a strong Tropical Storm or Cat1 Hurricane appears likely at this time for Sunday into Hawaii.
This is created with RealEarth, if you create a free account you get additional bandwidth before a watermark is placed over your images: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/
(For this IR loop, on the left it should be on the 'Products' tab already, scroll down until you see 'GOES West Full Disk', drag and drop the layer(s) you want onto the map, controls and share options at top left of page. If you create an account the log-in is the 3rd symbol in top left corner to actually log-in)
Wed 22July 11pEDT/5pHST:
Center about 1,570miles(2,530km) ESE of Hilo, HI
Winds 100mph(155km/h)
Moving WNW 17mph(28km/h)
Pressure 982mb
Rapid intensification underway, Cat3 or Cat4 possible this week before weakening trend begins over the weekend.
Thurs 23July 5aEDT/11pHST(Wed):
Center about 1,470miles(2,365km) ESE of Hilo, HI
Winds 120mph(195km/h) - Cat3 now
Moving WNW 17mph(28km/h)
Pressure 967mb
Some dry air on the north side but healthy storm. By later Friday starts approaching cooler waters, drier air and wind shear which should kick off the expected weakening trend.
Thurs 23July 11pEDT/5pHST:
Center about 1,125miles(1,810km) ESE of Hilo, HI
Winds 130mph(215km/h) - Cat4 now
Moving WNW 18mph(30km/h)
Pressure 954mb
At/near peak intensity, conditions start to become less favorable by late Friday.
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