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Old 07-29-2020, 09:01 PM
 
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Wed 29July 11pEDT/AST Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) forms (formally 92L, PTC9). Average 9th formation date is October 4.

Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 20mph(31km/h), pressure 1004mb.
Located about 155miles(250km) S of Ponce, Puerto Rico
About 265miles(430km) SE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Large system, very spread out, strongest winds currently on far North side, contending with it's own size, dry air, wind shear, soon mountains of Hispaniola. I think we'll know more / higher confidence in what happens next later Thursday into Friday. For now 11p cone map has storm traveling over Hispaniola, then possibly Cuba/Bahamas S FL region and up the Southeast US coast.
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/statu...69592295034881

Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 3hours at 2, 5, 8 & 11am/pmEDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:10 PM
 
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Tropical Storm Warnings:
-Puerto Rico
-US/British Virgin Islands
-St. Martin
-St. Barthelemy
-Saba
-St. Eustatius
-St. Maarten
-Dominican Republic S & N coast
-Haiti N coast Le Mole St Nicholas E to DR
-Turks & Caicos Islands
-SE & Central Bahamas

Tropical Storm Watch:
-NW Bahamas

Short term hazards: TS winds Puerto Rico / VI region now, Hispaniola by Thursday, then into the Bahamas. Heavy rains 3-6inch(75-150mm) Virgin Islands & Turks and Caicos, 3-6inch, isolated 8in(200mm) Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, N Haiti, E Cuba, 4-8in(100-200mm) SE Bahamas. Flash flooding / mudslide threats, especially Haiti with more trees stripped.
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:14 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/Ella__Dorsey/sta...600093696?s=19

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Old 07-30-2020, 12:52 AM
 
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Thurs 30July 240aEDT/AST: some very intense bands coming into Puerto Rico this AM, wind gust up to 60mph(97km/h) possible = tree & power issues likely occurring along with heavy rainfall, flooding possible. Possible new center, or just mesovortex spin from convective burst, moving NNW just South of PR as well on radar: https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/statu...24492370419713
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Old 07-30-2020, 04:24 AM
 
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Total dud of a system. I just pray the core of the heavy weather can go thru the Mona pass so it don't get ripped apart. Just not gonna do anything for my area anyways as they always go east of FL.
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Old 07-30-2020, 05:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late
today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in
Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on
Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua
reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h).



Discussion:
Quote:
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid
scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely
displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the
northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data
also shows increased banding features overnight and a more
organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a
low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection.
Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind
velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial
wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Model forecasts are showing a complex evolution of the tropical
cyclone during the next day or two. There is good agreement that
Isaias will move across Hispaniola later today, and its low-level
center will likely become disorganized over the high terrain.
However, the strong burst of convection currently near Puerto Rico
is associated with a mid-level circulation, which should pass
along the north coast of Hispaniola later today. Most of the model
guidance suggest that this feature will cause the re-development of
a surface center over the northern part of the broader system while
the mid-level circulation moves close to the southeastern Bahamas.
Afterward, the cyclone would then move northwestward until the
weekend, and gradually turn northward and northeastward close to the
U.S. East Coast into early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous
one and close to the NOAA corrected dynamical model consensus. It
should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are
indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.

The intensity forecast is quite tricky. In the short term, Isaias
is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction
with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and
disruption to the circulation. However, as mentioned before, the
models suggest that a new center could form, and the
environmental conditions would support gradual intensification.
The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official
forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak
intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and
the Southeast U.S. Coast. It should be noted that there are models
that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large
amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the
conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how
strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance
aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later
today.
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Old 07-30-2020, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Overnight Main Operational models for Isaias


Canadian & Euro take it West side of Florida.
GFS and NAVY take it on the east side.
(European/Canada vs American) Guess who will win. lol.



Canadian takes it most inland track
NAVY takes it over NYC
Euro is the weakest


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Old 07-30-2020, 06:25 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Total dud of a system. I just pray the core of the heavy weather can go thru the Mona pass so it don't get ripped apart. Just not gonna do anything for my area anyways as they always go east of FL.
Mid level center is passing thru Mona Passage this morning and likely about to become new dominant center.
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Old 07-30-2020, 06:31 AM
 
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Thurs 30July 8aEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 20mph(31km/h), pressure 1003mb.
Low level center about 100miles ESE of Santo Domingo, DR likely headed for its demise into high mountains of Hispaniola. Mid level center in Mona Passage likely to emerge as dominant center putting storm on North side of Hispaniola. After today we should know what we’re starting with and can have more confidence in strength & track towards/SE US. Heavy flooding rains and winds into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
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