Atlantic - Josephine forms August 13, 2020 (record, days, storms, most)

[Psychoma]

Thurs 13Aug 11aEDT/AST Tropical Storm Josephine forms (formally 95L, TD11). Average 10th formation date is October 19 and Josephine beats Jose of 2005 as earliest 10th storm (Record was 22Aug).

Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 1005mb.
Located about 975miles(1,565km) ESE of N Leeward Islands.

After hit and miss starts convection (storms) have continuously been firing this morning. Still not in the best shape but steady slow improvement. Storm expected to track just N of the Caribbean following around the clockwise flow of High Pressure over the Atlantic. Conditions not as favorable this weekend and weakening expected to start, likely gone by early next week as turns more North. No US impacts expected. Islands in NE Caribbean should keep an eye on for any outer edge effects but most if not all looks to stay North for now.

Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[Psychoma]

Thurs 13Aug 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 45mph(75km/h)
Moving WNW 17mph(28km/h)
Pressure 1005mb
Center about 760miles(1,220km) ESE of Leeward Islands.
No changes, a little time left to slowly organize before falling apart as turns North of the Caribbean in a few days.

[Psychoma]

Fri 14Aug 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 1004mb
Center about 460miles(740km) E of N Leeward Islands. Hurricane Hunter aircraft checked storm out first time today. Storm should start weakening this weekend. Possible up to a few inches of rain into Northern islands such as Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, N Leeward Islands but otherwise effects stay North and storm falls apart as turns North to Bermuda.

[Psychoma]

Sat 15Aug 11aEDT/AST:
Winds 45mph(75km/h)
Moving WNW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 1008mb
Center about 200miles(320km) ENE of N Leeward Islands, TS winds extend out up to 80miles(130km) North of the center. Still expected to weaken shortly as begins to turn more North then eventually NE in the coming days. No threat to US, remnants in what ever form that may be, could pass over Bermuda later next week.

[LKJ1988]

It's done.

[Psychoma]

Sun 16Aug 5aEDT/AST:
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 1009mb
Center about 190miles(305km) NE of San Juan Puerto Rico. Josephine is a naked swirl this morning with Low Level Center (LLC) racing out ahead of any convection with wind shear blowing top of storms off and away. Likely declared dissipated soon. Whatever is left goes North and out to sea.

[Psychoma]

Sun 16Aug 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 35mph(55km/h)
Moving WNW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 1010mb
Center about 175miles(280km) N of San Juan Puerto Rico. Opened up to a trough, no longer classified as a tropical system, not expected to recover. No more advisories to be issued, an archive can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/JOSEPHINE.shtml?