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Old 08-16-2020, 04:54 PM
 
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Sunday 16August Tropical Storm Genevieve forms (formally TD12E).

Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 20mph(31km/h), pressure 1004mb. Center about 330miles(530km) S of Acapulco Mexico, about 410miles(665km) SSE of Zihuatanejo Mexico. TS winds extend out up to 105miles(165km) from center.

Rapid intensification is forecast and NHC calling for strong Cat3 by Tues/Wed. Storm currently forecast to parallel the coast but well offshore. Baja may want to watch for potential impacts if storm gets close enough mid to late week but storm expected to weaken as gets that far North later in the week.

Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2&8a/p PDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 08-16-2020, 10:41 PM
 
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Sun 16Aug 11pEDT,8pPDT,5pHST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 18mph(30km/h)
Pressure 998mb
NHC now forecasting 140mph major hurricane this week.
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Old 08-17-2020, 07:37 PM
 
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Mon 17Aug 8pEDT,5pPDT,2pHST:
Winds 100mph(160km/h)
Moving WNW 18mph(30km/h)
Pressure 980mb
Rapidly intensifying. Cat2 now. Tropical Storm Watch for S tip of Baja from Los Barriles (Gulf of California side) to Todos Santos (Pacific side) for possible TS winds Wednesday pm - Thurs. With Watches up this also means storm stat updates are issued by NHC every 3hours instead of six. Center about 225miles(360km) SSW of Manzanillo, about 565miles(910km) SE of S tip of Baja. Has another about 48hrs to strengthen, then hits colder waters and begins to weaken.
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Old 08-18-2020, 11:23 AM
 
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Tue 18Aug 11aEDT,8aPDT,5aHST:
Winds 130mph(215km/h)
Moving NW 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 950mb
Cat4 now, still strengthening, but should peak soon. Additional TS Watch/Warnings out for S Baja region for some potential outer impacts as core winds pass by well offshore. Rain 1-4inches(25-100mm) possible S Baja and near coast of SW Mexico which will likely be the bigger concern.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-18-2020 at 11:37 AM..
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Old 08-18-2020, 09:42 PM
 
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Tue 18Aug 11pEDT,8pPDT,5pHST:
Winds 120mph(195km/h)
Moving NW 10mph(17km/h)
Pressure 956mb
Cat3. Hurricane winds extend up to 35miles(55km) from center, TS winds 140miles(220km). Center currently about 240miles(390km) SSE of S tip of Baja, expected to pass close enough to bring TS winds Southern Baja and heavy rains Wednesday thru Thurs. NHC in general says models keep center about 60miles offshore Wed/Thurs, but the track has been slowly edging a little to the right almost each update.
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Old 08-19-2020, 11:17 AM
 
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Wed 19Aug 11aEDT,8aPDT,5aHST:
Winds 115mph(185km/h)
Moving NNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 959mb
Continues to weaken, still a Cat3, aircraft recon on its way to check out in person, just crossed from Texas into Mexico at 12pEDT to investigate. Storm went more North overnight and due to extremely lose proximity Hurricane Warnings have been issued for S tip of Baja. A slight wobble East any or due North could bring hurricane winds onshore. TS winds are about to start coming ashore now.
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Old 08-19-2020, 09:35 PM
 
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Wed 19Aug 11pEDT,8pPDT,5pHST:
Winds 85mph(140km/h)
Moving NNW 7mph(11km/h)
Pressure 979mb
Center about 65miles(100km) SSW of S tip of Baja, about 240miles(385km) SE of Cabo San Lazaro. Hurricane winds extend out up to 30miles(45km) from center, TS winds 140miles(220km). Los Cabos reported a 54mph(87km/h) wind gust earlier. Some winds and very heavy rains (flooding) spreading across the region.
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Old 08-20-2020, 08:01 PM
 
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Thurs 20Aug 8pEDT,5pPDT,2pHST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving NW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 985mb
Center about 70miles(110km) SSW of Cabo San Lazaro, TS winds extend out from center about 105miles(165km). Storm is heading slightly West of paralleling the coast and TS winds should continue to move up along Baja but mainly right along West coast & continue along coast up through Bahia Tortugas Friday as storm continues to weaken and dissipate by Saturday. Additional 1-3in(25-75mm) rain possible portions of S Baja.

Moisture may spread up into extreme southern CA Fri/Sat. And the rest of storm may bring moisture via the Pacific further up the coast sometime in the Sun-Mon time frame or so possible near the LA - Santa Barbara region. Models don't show much onshore though but they said similar before the rains that came in the other day.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:42 PM
 
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Fri 21Aug 5pEDT,2pPDT,11aHST:
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving NW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 1003mb
Becomes post-tropical cyclone, no more advisories will be issued. Archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/GENEVIEVE.shtml?
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