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08-27-2020, 01:21 PM
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5,251 posts, read 2,584,910 times
Reputation: 1733
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08-27-2020, 02:07 PM
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5,251 posts, read 2,584,910 times
Reputation: 1733
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And another note on the surge, it may be this winter (off season) when they write the final reports until we have all the data on what/where the surge actually was in cases like this.
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08-27-2020, 03:07 PM
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11,476 posts, read 3,602,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach
This was BS. All the storm surge predictions were all overblown. My dad sits at 13 feet above sea level, not a drop in his house. They had predicted 7 feet in his house.
Even the Civic Center in downtown Lake Charles was not flooded.
People from other parts of the country think they know the local terrain. My dad said they were all wrong and he was right. He rode the storm out. He doesn't have power but no damage to his house.
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Storm surge predictions are ALWAYS wrong. They started hypoing this about 5 years ago and just continuing banging the storm surge drum.
I live in a hurricane prone area and I don't remember hearing anything about storm surge years ago. Never mentioned.
Now it's the big new FEAR FACTOR. Has never met their dire predictions at all. Which means they need to recalibrate their predictive models. |
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08-27-2020, 03:37 PM
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Location: Lake Huron Shores
2,229 posts, read 716,566 times
Reputation: 1758
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Louisiana has been completely devastated by Hurricane.
An already poor state struggling with COVID 19. Things are about to get much worse.
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08-27-2020, 03:43 PM
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Location: Middle Tennessee
5,490 posts, read 3,189,004 times
Reputation: 9006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice
Storm surge predictions are ALWAYS wrong. They started hypoing this about 5 years ago and just continuing banging the storm surge drum.
I live in a hurricane prone area and I don't remember hearing anything about storm surge years ago. Never mentioned.
Now it's the big new FEAR FACTOR. Has never met their dire predictions at all. Which means they need to recalibrate their predictive models.
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Kind of a double edge sword. Say they predict say a 10 ft storm surge and a bunch of people decide to ride it out on that prediction. But it turns into a 20 ft surge and the death toll is high from that. Then the people doing the predictions would catch hell for giving those people information that led to their deaths.
When it comes to figuring out what is going to happen with hurricanes, it can be a no win situation. |
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08-27-2020, 03:53 PM
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5,251 posts, read 2,584,910 times
Reputation: 1733
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Surge has always gotten a lot of attention since it accounts for about half of all deaths in US landfalling hurricanes. Water (surge + inland flooding, etc) in total accounts for 85%+ of US hurricane deaths. And with surge you can’t go to the neighbors house if something goes wrong with yours.
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08-27-2020, 04:01 PM
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5,251 posts, read 2,584,910 times
Reputation: 1733
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Additional helicopter footage along the coast starting with Cameron, 6 minute vid:
https://youtu.be/Ku6AvbOY2IU |
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08-27-2020, 05:19 PM
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5,622 posts, read 6,477,333 times
Reputation: 7487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice
Storm surge predictions are ALWAYS wrong. They started hypoing this about 5 years ago and just continuing banging the storm surge drum.
I live in a hurricane prone area and I don't remember hearing anything about storm surge years ago. Never mentioned.
Now it's the big new FEAR FACTOR. Has never met their dire predictions at all. Which means they need to recalibrate their predictive models.
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They have estimates for under and over. Only 2 years ago, Hurricane Michael's storm surge was forecast at 9-13 ft. A post-hurricane survey found high water marks of 17-19 ft above mean sea level. Homes were swept off their foundations.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hu...-20-High-Coast
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In a post-storm survey, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) found at least three high-quality still-water marks between 17 - 19’ above mean sea level (MSL) in Mexico Beach, taken inside of buildings where waves could not reach. These marks are likely a good measure of Michael’s peak storm tide (height above MSL of the storm surge plus the tide), according to Dr. Robert Young, director of Western Carolina University’s Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines.
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