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Old 08-27-2020, 07:28 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Surge has always gotten a lot of attention since it accounts for about half of all deaths in US landfalling hurricanes. Water (surge + inland flooding, etc) in total accounts for 85%+ of US hurricane deaths. And with surge you can’t go to the neighbors house if something goes wrong with yours.
I was on the coast in Florida for the 2004 hurricane season. I can tell you 100% that storm surge was NEVER mentioned for any of those hurricanes.

Feeder bands were the big deal. Always heard about feeder bands ... so there was a local band named .. Feeder Band.

Then they went hyper over wind speeds. wind speed wind speed wind speed.

Then eyewall, eyewall, eyewall, eyewall...

Now it's storm surge. Don't hear anything about feeder bands and the winds? Always state what highest GUST is, though. Which is not indicative of what the storm is. It's misleading. Talk about highest SUSTAINED wind speed. That's what is important.
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Old 08-27-2020, 07:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRR View Post
Kind of a double edge sword. Say they predict say a 10 ft storm surge and a bunch of people decide to ride it out on that prediction. But it turns into a 20 ft surge and the death toll is high from that. Then the people doing the predictions would catch hell for giving those people information that led to their deaths.

When it comes to figuring out what is going to happen with hurricanes, it can be a no win situation.
For people ho have been through multiple hurricanes, I can tell you that they IGNORE the mainstream media hype. It's background noise. Because it's 24-7 hype for advertising. There isn't any message there ether is actually helpful or truly truthful. It's sensationalizing. It's worst case scenario X100. They just want ratings.

We just look at the basic weather sites and then make decisions for ourselves. Because the MSM would have us evacuate every time a cloud farts.
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Old 08-27-2020, 08:57 PM
 
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27Aug Thurs 8pEDT,7CDT
Winds 40mph(65km)
Moving NNE 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 992mb
Should be downgraded to Tropical Depression (winds less then 39mph) any time.
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Old 08-27-2020, 10:43 PM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
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I think all in all the location of its landfall likely was pretty close to a best case scenario.
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Old 08-28-2020, 07:43 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Veritas Vincit View Post
I think all in all the location of its landfall likely was pretty close to a best case scenario.
And even though a lot of people questioned why they didn’t move the track more West to coincide with large portion of model guidance, the humans at NHC got landfall within 1 mile those last 3 days.
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Old 08-28-2020, 08:06 AM
 
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Looks like US Army Corps of Engineers had a gauge about 21 miles East of Cameron, LA in Grand Chenier on Hwy82 bridge over Mermentau River, about 1 mile inland, that measured preliminary just over 17ft then I think you have to subtract normal river height of that time so end up with I want to say around 14ft+/- of Surge. And USGS one about 6 miles or so East of there is being checked on by USGS.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:07 PM
 
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The KPOE weather radar NNE of Lake Charles near Fort Polk, LA which also went out in Laura is undamaged. A communications problem is to blame for its current outage, no eta yet. The Lake Charles Radar, destroyed in 130mph+ winds, has no eta for replacement. A similar replacement radar after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico cost around $1mln and took about 9months to bring back online.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
It's being talked about in the weather community as well. I'll have to look more but highest I saw earlier was the just over 9ft near Cameron which was right on the North tip of storm. So that means the highest surge likely would have been several miles east of there. There aren't many sensors out this region however so it may take awhile to tell what the peak actually was, they'll be sending teams out to look for water marks. The Freshwater Canal gauge went offline before it made landfall at a few feet, hopefully it kept recording. And USGS had a temp gauge near Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge. Haven't seen data from that one yet.


But thankfully the storm didn't wobble West which would have likely brought higher surge into Cameron and Lake Charles. But we want to know what's truly going to occur. And situations like this creates a big problem for an actual higher surge into town in future storms because everyone will say it won't be bad or didn't reach in storm Laura.
This is because idiots at TWC superimposed storm surge onto a topographical map. That is idiotic. The storm surge does not just come onto a region at once. It comes up from the south, there are locks and such that can prevent it from proceeding north. For instance, there is a lock on the St. Louis Coulee. They had this closed and there is a pumping station that was constantly pumping out the water. The NWS didn't calculate this.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/La...!4d-93.2173758

There is also a lock on the Pithon Coulee either, see the lock below. The pump was going full blast here too.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/La...!4d-93.2173758

They also don't consider the salt water lock on the Calcasieu River:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/La...!4d-93.2173758

You are just a weather enthusiast yourself and have no local knowledge of the area. I grew up there, I knew the estimates were not going to come to fruition. I can also tell you where it flooded. This is the part of town that is below sea level and did indeed get flooded. The Canal shown overflowed:

https://www.google.com/maps/@30.2034...7i16384!8i8192

Lots of back seat drivers that know nothing about Lake Charles.

I know some people that saw the 20 ft estimates, said the NWS and TWC are idiots and decided to ride it out because the estimates were so much higher than even Rita was. By the way, the Calcasieu River peaked at 11ft in Cameron, in Rita it was 13ft.

If they had simply said to expect Rita level surge, more people would've evacuated.
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Old 08-28-2020, 05:09 PM
 
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https://www.katc.com/news/calcasieu-...n-lake-charles

So sad and avoidable. I understand why the family had the generator in the attached garage. After hurricanes thieves drive around with bolt cutters and powered saws listening and watching for generators. My brother-in-law’s neighbor had a generator chained with a logging chain and they cut the chain and stole the generator. Either they’re stealing them for personal use or they’re going to sell them to pawn shops or in local markets (sales papers or online). Some portable generators cost more than a thousand dollars. Battery powered carbon monoxide detectors and proper generator placement would have saved their lives.
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Old 08-28-2020, 05:17 PM
 
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Thanks for the added detailed info! That's quite a ways in for a deep draft channel. Didn't realize they had that many locks in place.
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