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Old 08-23-2020, 08:15 AM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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Some weather models now has Laura's landfall near Houston as a Category 4.
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Old 08-23-2020, 09:05 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by censusdata View Post
Some weather models now has Laura's landfall near Houston as a Category 4.
Upper levels would really have to change in favor of that storm. If everything is just right for good exhaust and outflow and the forward speed is not too fast anything can happen. I just wished it could move northeast toward the west coast of FL.
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Old 08-23-2020, 09:36 AM
 
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Sun 23Aug 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT
Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1005mb.

Impressive outflow this morning being over Hispaniola of all places. Normally known as the 'Hurricane shredder' Laura is holding its own while near/over this mountainous island. Recon flying around the island (can't fly over) but the assumption is the Low Level Center and Mid Level Center are still separated (not healthy structure wise at the moment). Given where storms are firing up and keeps staying to the S of guidance, the storm appears more likely to head over or just S of Cuba. The more it can stay off land = likely the more better position it will be to strengthen in the Gulf (or better jump off point at least).

As others have mentioned the overnight model guidance wanted to re-create the 1900 Galveston Hurricane which took almost exact same path and a monster into the TX coast. Fortunately some mid-morning models walked that back some. But the potential for a monster storm in the Gulf is there.

Still a lot of questions on where storm goes and we'll know a lot more as storm emerges into the Gulf but that puts lead times around 48hours which is not ideal. Per Jack's post today (link: https://blog.weather.us/tropical-sto...y-or-thursday/ ) a stronger storm is more likely to head more West, and weaker more likely to curve up into the central Gulf coast.

But a Hurricane is VERY likely to make landfall somewhere in the central or Western Gulf this week.

NHC's 11aEDT/10aCDT update comes out any minute.
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Old 08-23-2020, 09:59 AM
 
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Sun 23Aug 11aEDT/AST,10aCDT
Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 21mph(33km/h), pressure 1004mb. Located between Haiti and Cuba. Heavy rains over Haiti and Dominican Republic will likely lead to serious flooding up to a foot of rain some locations.

NHC has moved cone map to the West, and currently has a 100mph hurricane making landfall early Thursday TX/LA. Intensity may change as we need to see what shape / strength storm is in when enters the Gulf and the cone may continue to adjust.
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Old 08-23-2020, 10:47 AM
 
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The Gulf ahead of Laura is covered with fertilizer:
https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1297559408143208449
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Old 08-23-2020, 01:02 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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I could get quite an impact here depending on the track. NWS showing hurricane conditions possible. I'll be home this coming week anyway because I have to quarantine.

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Old 08-23-2020, 01:29 PM
 
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2pEDT/1CDT - No real changes.
I did see some people I follow on social media that some of the 12Z (Afternoon model runs) may be suspect.
-Euro model has Larua starting further North then actual which throws everything downstream off and it has Marco falling apart and pivots weakening Laura up around it into SE LA.
-GFS has Laura North of Haiti but in reality it's on the SE side of Cuba.

Either way, Gulf residents from near and including LA should be preparing for possible hurricane Laura this week, and the possibility of a stronger storm is definitely there.
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Old 08-23-2020, 01:49 PM
 
Location: ☀️ SFL (hell for me-wife loves it)
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This projection (at the time I'm posting this) has a timeline that has Laura making landfall twice in Louisiana.
Just use the date (bottom left in white dialog box) to move the date and timeline along from 3 and into 4 days into the future. This would be quite scary for residents along the coast.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.0;-81.0;5&l=gust

edit: I have this app on my cell phone and it won't show the proper link, as the link above is premium on phone.
I view it for free on my desktop.
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Old 08-23-2020, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Texas
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I'm in the Houston area in Galveston County on the water (though not on the Island). Starting to get concerned. We have all the supplies we need, as I start buying and preparing in April or May every year. Food, water, cash. I filled up both daily drivers with gas yesterday. We also have a whole house generator.

My in laws live in the city, but have a house in East Texas. Really thinking about heading up there to avoid the wind and storm surge potential where I am. If we evacuate, though, I'll have to drive alone with the kids and pets, because my husband is on call and won't be able to leave. If we stay, there's the potential that he could be called in, or worse yet, have to stay in house at the hospital. Being at home in a Hurricane without him is about the worst scenario I could imagine.

I'm leaning towards leaving, and if I do, would probably go tomorrow late afternoon.
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Old 08-23-2020, 05:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Ag 93 View Post
I'm in the Houston area in Galveston County on the water (though not on the Island). Starting to get concerned. We have all the supplies we need, as I start buying and preparing in April or May every year. Food, water, cash. I filled up both daily drivers with gas yesterday. We also have a whole house generator.

My in laws live in the city, but have a house in East Texas. Really thinking about heading up there to avoid the wind and storm surge potential where I am. If we evacuate, though, I'll have to drive alone with the kids and pets, because my husband is on call and won't be able to leave. If we stay, there's the potential that he could be called in, or worse yet, have to stay in house at the hospital. Being at home in a Hurricane without him is about the worst scenario I could imagine.

I'm leaning towards leaving, and if I do, would probably go tomorrow late afternoon.
Well it sounds like you have everything in order...supplies on hand earlier in the season, gassed up before panic buying / shortages pop-up, potential multiple evac points, know you're on the water. It's always a hard call to make especially with kids and pets. And with shifts in forecast continuing.

Per the NHC, Tropical Storm winds (39mph or higher) are currently not expected until sometime Wednesday for LA/TX. The arrival of TS winds are typically considered the cut-off time for movement as that wind speed is usually when you start seeing scattered power & tree issues.

If you evacuate, always make sure you're not driving to a place that may see more danger then where you're coming from (inland flood risk and inland wind potential mainly). Surge is the greatest risk statistically (inland flooding second) and surge is usually highest right at the center and to the right where comes ashore (due to counter clockwise movement of wind around the center pushing water onshore).

Stay safe!
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