Atlantic - Laura forms August 21, 2020 (warm, average, locations, prediction)

[I LOVE NORTH CAROLINA]

Why isn't Dr Knab on The Weather Channel???

[Texas Ag 93]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

If you evacuate, always make sure you're not driving to a place that may see more danger then where you're coming from

Stay safe!

Thanks. I'd be going to a place in my in laws just bought outside of Tyler.

[Psychoma]

Sun 23Aug 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 21mph(33km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
Near Guantanamo Cuba (radar(US Navy website): https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/anim...type=CMaxZH240). The main cluster of storms continues to head more West between Cuba and Jamaica while on radar you can see another part head onshore. Overall still has organizing to do and we'll see how much Cuba affects it.

Watch/Warning updates:
-TS Watch North of Craig Key canceled (S of there still active)
-TS Warning Dominican Republic, Turks & Caicos and all of Bahamas except Inagua & Ragged Islands canceled
-TS Warning Little Cayman, Cayman Brac

Given they are time based issued, Watches will be posted for the US coast sometime Monday.

[Psychoma]

Sun 23Aug 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 21mph(33km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
So that was the LLC that crossed over Guantanamo and into Cuba. Per Tropical Tidbits and some other knowledgeable's on Twitter there's the possibility the LLC is pulled back down towards the MLC to the South, similar to what we saw over Puerto Rico and again Haiti. Crucial moments into how Laura starts its trek into the Gulf.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...78290250010629

Watch/Warning changes:
-TS Warning Bahamas canceled.

[Psychoma]

Laura with a tail end surprise brought 60mph winds & gust to 72mph at Guantanamo Bay after center passed by a little earlier this evening. Just before 10pEDT winds there back down to 31mph, gust 40.

[Psychoma]

Sun 23Aug 11pEDT/AST,10pCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 21mph(33km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
No real changes for now. Winds up 5mph. Most of the convection South Cuba and Jamaica.

Watch/Warning updates:
-TS Warning Dry Tortugas, FL
-TS Warning Haiti canceled.

[Psychoma]

A reminder about the cone error representation & effects far reaching outside the cone:
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/st...33431967846400

[Psychoma]

Mon 24Aug 5aEDT/AST,4aCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 21mph(33km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
There are 2 air recon planes just reaching Laura so better idea of its structure later this morning. Looks really bad on satellite but it's moved back off Cuba into open waters. Storms North of the center basically missing currently. We'll see how it takes advantage of this opportunity today but for this morning it's not doing anything quickly in it's current shape.

Models still spread some but keeping with their stronger storm if further West/South, weaker if further North/East, many come into W LA or north half of TX coast. But possible major hurricane in just 2-3 days so not much time to prepare.

Watch/Warning updates:
-TS Warning middle/lower FL Keys, Craig Key South.

[Psychoma]

Mon 24Aug 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 21mph(33km/h)
Pressure 1000mb
No changes for now, recon planes still checking things out.

[Psychoma]

The mid morning Euro shifted most of its runs (It’s made of up 50 sub-models) to the Texas coast:
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status...91762690818048