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Old 08-24-2020, 09:48 AM
 
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Mon 24Aug 11aEDT/AST,10aCDT
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
Pressure 1002mb
No real changes made. Some in the weather community on social are talking about recon may have found another center well West of current one, so if we have a jump that’ll change things again. Disorganized systems can jump centers around which complicates forecast and can throw models off.

Watch/Warning updates:
-TS Warnings E Cuba canceled.

As mentioned earlier, because they are time issued based, Watches will go up for the US Gulf coast this evening. Watches typically issued when 48hours until arrival of TS winds. Running out of time to prepare and track still shifting. Not ideal.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-24-2020 at 10:04 AM..
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Old 08-24-2020, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Running out of time to prepare and track still shifting. Not ideal.
Yes. I am partially packed up and getting ready to leave with kids and pets late this afternoon if I have to. My interpretation of the 11 am EST update was that it looks likely to continue towards a landfall nearer the TX/LA border???
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Old 08-24-2020, 11:09 AM
 
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The center of the cone track would imply that currently. But it should be noted that the cone represents where the center may go (on average 2/3rds of the time) and the width of the cone represents the average error that far out in time for the past 5 years. (NHC general info on reading cone maps for ref: https://youtu.be/04QRN5gUe08 ). And Houston is just inside the cone.

If there’s any shifts my personal opinion as it stands right now is that would be more to the West. But I think the confidence on where it goes will go up a lot sometime Tuesday as we’ll have a better idea of it’s organization and hopefully track. Bigger swings in NHC’s forecast changes typically, but not always, occur with the main 5 & 11a/pEDT(4,10a/pCDT) updates. But I’m not a trained pro, just a fan of weather, mainly hurricanes.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-24-2020 at 11:22 AM..
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Old 08-24-2020, 01:09 PM
 
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Mon 24Aug 2pEDT/AST,1pCDT
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
Pressure 1001mb
Still disorganized, but looks a little more symmetrical versus this morning. Several of the afternoon models bring center in somewhere between Houston and Lake Charles (as always: not a guarantee or forecast, just mentioning what they show).
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Old 08-24-2020, 03:56 PM
 
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Mon 24Aug 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
Pressure 1001mb

As expected Watches issued...note the initial surge height prediction of 7-11feet High Island TX to Morgan City, LA (keep in mind surge is highest to the right of where center makes landfall typically so depends where center goes)

Will detail more here this evening, gotta step out for a moment.
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Old 08-24-2020, 05:19 PM
 
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Mon 24Aug 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT update continued:

As mentioned earlier a fair amount of model guidance has landfall somewhere from Houston to Lake Charles. The Euro was mostly South of Houston. Evening models should be out here before too long. NHC cone basically remains unchanged. Track is still subject to change and Watches/Warnings may be extended. NHC has a Cat2, nearly Cat3 at landfall, also subject to change.

NHC says recon shows storm holding basically steady at the moment. Reminder effects will be felt well outside the 'center'. Due to limited time until landfall evacuations will likely be fairly quick to be issued. Don't be that person that waits until last moment to see if storm will turn or not and get stuck in place. Surge will likely begin to rise well ahead of the center as water will be trapped by the onshore winds. Reminder where hurricanes approach that stores may close early so they can prep their stores and their own homes.

US Watch/Warnings:
-Storm Surge Watch San Luis Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS (includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and coastal bays)
-Hurricane Watch Port Bolivar, TX to west of Morgan City, LA.
-Tropical Storm Watch S of Port Bolivar, TX to San Luis Pass, TX
-TS Watch Morgan City, LA to mouth of MS River.

Note: Most Watches will turn to Warnings in about 12hours or so as they are time based issued (Watch 48hrs until TS Winds start, Warning 36hrs when first issued). Surge Watch/Warnings are issued for 3ft or higher.

Surge details (per NHC), and these are subject to change depending on storm track and strength. Surge is typically highest at the center and to the right of where comes onshore, and the shape of the coast, whether hits at high/low tide, etc. play a role in who sees what in the end.
-High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay: 7-11 feet
-Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
-Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
-Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
-Borgne...3-5 ft
-San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
-Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
-Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
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Old 08-24-2020, 07:29 PM
 
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Mon 24Aug 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT
Winds 65mph(105km/h)
Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
Pressure 998mb

2 recon planes and radar show Laura is already onshore the Western edge of Cuba. Once emerges into the Gulf it's free to strengthen with just some light shear in its path. Evening Euro model just came in and rapidly intensifies:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298049398933520384

Obs: Havana reported gust to 65mph(105km/h), storm is WSW of there halfway between there and W tip of Cuba.
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Old 08-24-2020, 08:31 PM
 
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Mon 930pEDT/830pCDT: Appears center is already quickly puling off the NW coast of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. Convection now starting to wrap around the Northern side. Storm looks to be organizing already.
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Old 08-24-2020, 09:50 PM
 
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Mon 24Aug 11pEDT/AST,10pCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 20mph(31km/h)
Pressure 996mb
Center about 80miles(130km) NE of Cuba
NHC cone shifts slightly to the left tonight and may extend Hurricane Watches further along TX coast tomorrow. Storm is slowly but steadily organizing at the moment, should be hurricane easily tomorrow. Storm will have 2 days over very warm waters, the chance for a Cat3+ is there. NHC forecast is for a border line Cat2/3 at the moment. Watches will likely change to Warnings in the morning some locations (time based).

Watch/Warning updates:
-TS Warning Middle FL Keys canceled.
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Old 08-25-2020, 04:05 AM
 
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Tue 25Aug 5aEDT/AST,4aCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving WNW 17mph(28km/h)
Pressure 995mb

Overnight air recon shows storm went West overnight, likely pulled down, as we saw several times last few days, by the deeper convection to the centers S/SW and some wind shear out of the North. Storm over open waters and less shear should better organize today, hurricane soon.

NHC now forecast a Cat3 at landfall. NHC cone is basically unchanged but they do say it may need to be shifted more to the West today which would match model guidance more (they won't jump the cone around model to model run. Rapid intensification is possible over the Gulf with near perfect conditions to strengthen if it takes advantage. Wind shear looks to return right along the TX coast just as storm comes in.

Watch/Warning updates:
-Hurricane Watch extended from Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass
-TS Watch extended from San Luis Pass to Freeport, TX
-TS Warning Seven Mile Bridge to Key West canceled.
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