U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-07-2020, 10:32 AM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733

Advertisements

Mon 7Sept 11aEDT/AST Tropical Storm Paulette forms (formally 92L & TD17) halfway between NW Africa & Caribbean. Earliest "P" storm on known record (previous record: 'Philippe' 17Sept of the crazy 2005 season).

Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), drifting WNW 3mph(6km/h), pressure 1005mb
Located about 1,375miles(2,215km) E of N Leeward Islands.

Steady strengthening as drifts. The thinking is the stronger it gets the more likely it will be pulled up and out to sea, weaker may allow it to not be influenced as easily and may miss it's first chance to re-curve but other opportunities to do so await it. Steering by High pressure and several troughs to pass by.

So uncertainty in it's future but most guidance suggest out to sea eventually. This isn't a guarantee though so worth keeping an eye on. Nothing really brings it to the US at this time tho in model guidance.

Official updates by NHC every 6hrs at 5 & 11a/pEDT/AST: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-07-2020, 06:52 PM
 
18,595 posts, read 12,207,150 times
Reputation: 6273
Same as i posted about the other storm. Nothing storm and will go north.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-08-2020, 07:01 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Tue 8Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving NW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 995mb
Center about 1,230miles(1,980km) E of N Leeward Islands.

Running into Wind shear now, blowing storms off to the NE, you can see this on satellite with outer edges/outflow being moved VERY quickly far off to it's NE. Center of storm is more along the SW corner of storms. This should overall limit/slow further intensification, eventfully start to weaken it.

First chance to turn North coming up as could slip up between two High pressures. If misses then will try to curve up around the next one while still well out to sea. Proximity to Rene later this week may influence track as well.

Last edited by Psychoma; 09-08-2020 at 07:13 PM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-08-2020, 09:59 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Tue 8Sept 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving NW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Center about 1,185miles(1,905km) E of N Leeward Islands.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2020, 07:43 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Wed 9Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 10mph(17km/h)
Pressure 996mb
Center about 1,035miles(1,665km) E of N Leeward Islands.
Potential threat to Bermuda increasing.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-10-2020, 08:11 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Thurs 10Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 50mph(85km/h)
Moving WNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Center about 1,145miles(1,840km) SE of Bermuda.

Wind shear high, but relaxes soon, storm expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Should turn North and re-curve around the steering influence of High Pressure. The timing of this North turn will be the difference of possible impacts to Bermuda early next week. They should be preparing for a Hurricane just in case.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-11-2020, 06:01 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Fri 11Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving NW 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 989mb
Center about 855miles(1,380km) SE of Bermuda.
Hurricane Watch for Bermuda should be issued tonight or Saturday where may hit as turns North out to sea Monday.
Waves from the storm to start reaching the US late this weekend, which will increase rip current threat.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2020, 07:00 AM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Sat 12Sept 8aEDT/AST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving NW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 987mb
Center about 590miles(955km) SE of Bermuda.
TS winds extend up to 205miles(335km) from center.

Just as the storm was preparing to ramp up, in the last few hours it appears Paulette has ingested a small pocket of dry air and looks a little ragged on IR imagery. This may not persist long though as the dry air pocket is small and storm has a strong vorticity which will help it recover quickly with conditions only improving ahead. Last few frames of visible & IR imagery show new storms firing up already. NHC forecast possible Cat2, maybe even Cat3, near Bermuda early Monday.

Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch up for Bermuda.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2020, 07:00 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Sat 12Sept 8pEDT/AST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving WNW 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 981mb
Center about 415miles(670km) SE of Bermuda.
Expected to be hurricane tonight, Hurricane warning for Bermuda.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2020, 10:04 PM
 
5,252 posts, read 2,586,057 times
Reputation: 1733
Sat 12Sept 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving WNW 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 981mb
Cat 1 Hurricane
Center about 385miles(615km) SE of Bermuda.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 195miles(315km).
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top