Atlantic - Sally forms September 12, 2020 (prediction, compare, map, East)

[LKJ1988]

You would never know there is a cane so close to me. Only .30" of rain in 3 days. Wished a dig down would pick it up and steer it away at 20 mph and get it out of here. With clouds for 3 days it is killing any heating for our normal T storms. These systems always dry my area out and miss me.

[Psychoma]

Tue 15Sept 9pEDT/8pCDT:
Winds 85mph(140km/h)
Moving N 2mph(4km/h)
Pressure 972mb
Center about 70miles(115km) S of Mobile, AL
Center about 70miles(115km) SW of Pensacola, FL
Hurricane winds extend up to 40miles(65km) from center, TS winds 125miles(205km).

Pressure continues to slowly drop which means it's trying to strengthen, but close to land and radar hasn't improved yet (and looks a little elongated) so rest of storm holding for now. Infrared satellite it does look like clouds forming an eye for once. Edge of eyewall along Dauphin Island & Gulf Shores now. Another intense band across Pensacola. The eye itself is overall calm and mostly rain free at this time. Multiple flash flood warnings across the Gulf coast. This will persist through the night and will be slowly expanding more inland. Brief quick moving Tornadoes, mainly Northeast of the storm center, will continue through the night.

Surge obs next post.

[Psychoma]

Tue 15Sept 930pEDT/830pCDT surge obs (*My interpretation of graphs only, not official*). Source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/in...orm/Sally.html

Note: Reminder surge is mostly wind direction driven. A hurricane spins counter clockwise. As the winds slowly shift as passes you it may push no water, water away from you, or at some point towards you. So you may have your highest surge somewhere between start or after center has passed you depending on location / shape of water ways / wind direction.

Finishing up low tide now, about to start heading towards high tide.

From East to West:
FL:
-Apalachicola +2.1ft
-Panama City +2ft
-Panama City Beach +2.5ft
-Pensacola +3.88ft

AL:
-Dauphin Island +2.66ft
-Mobile +0ft (reverse surge occurring...current wind direction pushing water more WSW/SW)

MS:
-Pascagoula +1.38ft
-Bay St. Louis +1.63ft

LA:
-Shell Beach +4.1ft
-Lake Pontchartrain - New Canal Station (Lakeshore Park) +3.3ft
-Lake Pontchartrain -i10 in SW corner +3.3ft
-Pilottown +2.5ft
-Pilot Station East SW Pass +2.5ft
-Grand Isle +1.2ft
-Amerada Pass +1.3ft

[Psychoma]

Wed 16Sept 1aEDT/12aCDT - winds have now intensified following that pressure drop finally, now 100mph Per air recon and radar. A buoy near Orange Beach is measuring 87mph winds, gust 109mph. More recent air recon passes are showing additional strengthening may be occurring.

[Psychoma]

Wed 16Sept 2aEDT/1aCDT 105mph winds now in the eye wall (the bright ring around the clear calm eye on radar, much less winds outside this ring). Here’s radar (rain and wind depiction): https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...08011656642560

[Psychoma]

Wed 16Sept 6aEDT/5aCDT: Cat2 105mph, moving NNE 3mph, pressure 965mb

Made Landfall Gulf Shores, AL:
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...71512932560898

350k+ without power (221k AL, 125k FL):
https://twitter.com/poweroutage_us/s...70772675866624

[Psychoma]

1030aEDT/930aCDT - 2in+ per hour Rain rates possible next several hours Southern AL, FL Panhandle and extreme SW corner of GA: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/met...d=0762&yr=2020 Water rescues are occurring in some of these locations already. Over 24inches has fallen some locations now already.

[Psychoma]

Pensacola 3-mile bridge crane fell across it:
https://twitter.com/gulfbreezecity/s...37188762472449

Part of the bridge is also gone:
https://twitter.com/src_em/status/1306249160505651203

Surge gauge at Pensacola looks to have peaked, now down to around 4.5ft and falling as we start to exit peak of high tide.

Sally has nothing but wind on the back half / SW portion. All the rain on the SE/E/N side currently.

[Psychoma]

Wed 16Sept 12pCDT,1pEDt - 75mph, moving 5mph...more then doubled its movement speed from yesterday now...
Focus starts to shift more to upcoming/occurring inland flooding.
NHC’s “Key Messages” text: https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...79981249687552

[kab0906]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Pensacola 3-mile bridge crane fell across it:
https://twitter.com/gulfbreezecity/s...37188762472449

Part of the bridge is also gone:
https://twitter.com/src_em/status/1306249160505651203

.

Someone from the area said that bridge was a new one under construction. One part was finished and being used for traffic in both directions - hence the dividing stick cone things. The other side wasn't finished, not sure how far along it was.

The missing section, I believe they said, was on the finished part , making that bridge unusable.

They said a barge broke loose and slammed into it. Same thing that happened to the old skyway bridge in Tampa Bay years ago that killed several people. Thankfully this bridge was already closed and no fatalities .