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Old 09-12-2020, 01:22 PM
 
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Sat 12Sept 2pEDT/AST,1pCDT Tropical Storm Sally forms (formally 96L, TD19) along Southwest FL coast. Earliest "S" storm on known record.

Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving W 7mph(11km/h)
Pressure 1004mb

Located about 35miles(60km) SSE of Naples, FL.
TS Winds extend up to 80miles(130km) from center...mainly to the S and SE for now as bands are quickly forming and streaming in moisture/energy into the central area.

Along SW FL coast heading into Gulf. Strong bands coming from the West across South side of storm and wrapping up into central area helping feed the core. Recon just arriving to check out, looks like NW corner of storm has lite winds at the moment. Center is still slightly elongated. Will need to tighten that up to strengthen more quickly.

Should intensify, eventually to a Hurricane, as slowly moves towards central US Gulf coast. Longer stays over water the increase in potential strength for this storm. Slow movement will also increase/magnify effects in the coming days for N Gulf coast: prolonged surge through multiple high tide cycles, models are hinting at over a foot of rain several areas, that will have trouble draining with high waters from surge as well as inland flooding potential, larger period of TS winds will put more wear and tear on tree/power lines.

Watch/Warning:
-TS Watch Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton Co. line.
-Additional TS Watches, Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued FL Panhandle into Louisiana sometime tonight or early Sunday at the latest (time based issuance, typically 48hrs before TS winds begin).

Official updates by NHC every 3hrs at 2,5,8 & 11a/pEDT/AST (1,4,7 & 10a/pCDT): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://twitter.com/weathersources/s...51310567657472

Last edited by Psychoma; 09-12-2020 at 01:37 PM..
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Old 09-12-2020, 05:39 PM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
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Could be another Florence if it moves that slow and dumps enough rain.
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Old 09-12-2020, 06:17 PM
 
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Wished it would stall 150 miles west of FL and wait out a dig down to turn it toward me at CAT 1 or 2.
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Old 09-12-2020, 07:19 PM
 
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Sat 12Sept 8pEDT/7pCDT:
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 1003mb
Still convection mainly SE of low level center. Once further away from FL this should improve and storm should become more aligned/organized. NHC's current forecast is a Cat1 Hurricane by Monday before landfall Tuesday. There is some potential for rapid intensification though. This will be a slow moving storm, as stated before, effects will be amplified due to this regardless of final strength.

NHC Storm Surge potential:
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Watch/Warnings:
-Storm Surge Watch Mouth of MS River to AL/FL line, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, Mobile Bay.
-Hurricane Watch Grand Isle, LA to AL/FL line, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas.
-TS Watch AL/FL line to Ochlockonee River, FL
*Note: Storm Surge Watch/Warning are typically issued where water could potentially be 3ft or higher. Areas outside this could still have rise but likely below 3ft.
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Old 09-12-2020, 10:06 PM
 
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Sat 12Sept 11pEDT/7pCDT:
Winds 40mph(65km/h)
Moving WNW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 1003mb
Rain totals near the central Gulf coast raised to nearly 20".
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Current map with surface winds. Really didn't wish this was going to strengthen


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Old 09-13-2020, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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With 8.85" (and counting) today has been Key West's wettest day since Hurricane Katrina dropped 9.66" on 8/26/2005 and their 6th wettest day of all-time

And records date back to 1871! What a rainfall event for them

That’s 3.95” in 1 Hour!

https://twitter.com/SERCC/status/1304984851058130944

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Old 09-13-2020, 08:25 AM
 
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Most all the rain will miss me like always. I just can't buy a tropical system.
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Old 09-13-2020, 10:50 AM
 
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Sun 13Sept 11aEDT/10aCDT:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 12mph(19km/h)
Pressure 998mb
Center about 280miles(450km) ESE of mouth of MS River.
TS winds extend up to 90miles(150km) from center.

Track edged slightly to the West. Some slight wind shear still affecting storm with most storms off on the East half. Shear relaxing so storm should continue to steadily improve with best chance to intensify on Monday.

Potential storm surge values have been increased with 7 to 11ft possible some locations & surge may be high through multiple high tide cycles which will put additional strain on the levee systems:
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...63838602444801

Watch/Warnings:
-Because they're time based several Watch areas became Warnings.
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Old 09-13-2020, 02:13 PM
 
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Still no rain for me.
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